摘要
目的探讨模糊时间序列分析在传染病发病率预测的应用价值。方法采用模糊时间序列分析方法,对2004年1月～2010年7月我国内地法定报告的肾综合征出血热(HFRS)逐月发病率资料建立预测模型,并对2010年8月～2010年11月的相应数据进行预测,并将预测结果与传统SARIMA模型预测结果进行比较。结果本次研究结果显示,模糊时间序列分析相对于SARIMA模型,有较好的预测能力。结论模糊时间序列分析对于HFRS等传染病发病率的预测具有较好的应用价值。
Objective To explore the application of fuzzy time series model in fore-casting the incidence rate of HFRS per month in China's Mainland.Methods Using the fuzzy time series method to fit the predictive model according to the incidence rate of HFRS in China's Mainland between January 2004 and July 2010,then forecasting the re-lative incidence from August 2010 to November 2010,finally comparing the results with those resulted from the traditional SARIMA model.Results According to the study results,the fuzzy time series model performs better than SARIMA model in the ability of forecasting.Conclusion The fuzzy time series model can be applied to forecasting the incidence of HFRS,etc.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期146-150,共5页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
卫生公益性科研专项经费项目(200802133)
教育部科学技术研究重点项目(109135)
国家科技重大专项项目(2009ZX10004-201)
