摘要
目的 研究全国法定传染病的发病规律和趋势。方法 对于1990———2001年资料完整的20种传染病,借助MATLAB6 1版本数学软件编程,建立灰色系统G(1,1)模型,并进行外推3年预测。结果 后验差比值C和小误差概率P综合模型检验,20个模型等级结果是:9个1级、8个2级、3个3级。结论 通过模型进行分析,除淋病、布氏杆菌病、斑疹伤寒3种近期未来发病率将上升外,其余17种发病率近期未来将下降。
Objective:To Predict the epidemic strength and tendency for legal infections in our country.Methods:The G(1,1) modes of Grey system were set up with MATLAB 61 mathematical software according to the data of 20 legal infections from 1990 to 2001. The incidences of 3 years in the futrue were predicted . Results:Posteriori error ratio C and small error probability P were analyzed comprehensively. Model tests in 20 infections were obtained with 9 first grade, 8 second grade and 3 third grade. Conclusions:17 legal infections will fall tendency in the near future except gonorrhea, brucellosis and typhus by analysis of the G(1,1) modes of Grey system.
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第5期63-67,共5页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
