摘要
目的构建北京市房山区手足口病发病的SARIMA模型并进行预测。方法应用83.0.1软件程序包中的TSA对2007—2013年房山区手足口病月发病率构建模型,并对2014年各月手足口病月发病率进行预测和评价。结果 SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型较好地拟合既往时间段发病率,对2014年各月的预测值符合手足口病实际发病率变动趋势,对2015年手足口病发病率进行了预测。结论 SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型能够很好拟合手足口病月发病率数据,可用于房山区手足口病发病趋势的短期预测,为下一步采取针对性防控措施提供科学依据。
[Objective]To establish a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average（SARIMA） model to predict the epidemic trend of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） in Fangshan District of Beijing.[Methods]A SARIMA model was established basing on the monthly incidences of HFMD from 2007 to 2013 in Fangshan District of Beijing by R3.0.1 TSA,and the monthly incidences in 2014 were predicted and assessed by this model.[Results]SARIMA（0,0,1）（0,1,1） 12 was fitted well with the observed values.The further prediction of the monthly incidences from January to December 2014 by the model indicated that the predicted incidence accorded with the change trend of actual incidences.The monthly HFMD incidences in 2015 were forecasted.[Conclusion]SARIMA（0,0,1）（0,1,1） 12 is fitted well with monthly incidences of HFMD,which can be applied to predict the short-term epidemic trend of HFMD,and provide a scientific basis for further taking the prevention and control measures.
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2015年第23期3269-3272,共4页
Occupation and Health
关键词
手足口病
SARIMA模型
时间序列分析
Hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）
Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average（SARIMA）model
Timeseries analysis
