摘要
目的探讨应用SARIMA模型预测东莞市某区手足口病发病的可行性，旨在为该区手足口病预防和控制提供依据。方法对2010年1月至2014年6月手足口病月发病数进行SARIMA模型建模拟合，用2014年7-12月发病数验证模型的预测效果。结果东莞市某区手足口病疫情高峰为每年的二季度，一季度是发病低谷。SARIMA（0，1，1）（0，1，0）12较好地拟合既往时间段的发病数的时间序列，对2014年7～12月各月的预测与实际发病趋势相符，预测的平均绝对误差为13．09，平均相对误差为9．79％。结论SARIMA模型可以较好的拟合东莞市某区手足口病的时间变化趋势，可用其对未来的发病数进行预测。
Objective To investigate the posibility of using SARIMA model to predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Dongguan, and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods SARIMA model was used to model the incidence of foot-mouth disease in June-2014 in January 2010, and the predictive effect of the model was verified by using-12 months in July 2014. Results In Dongguan City, a district of hand disease outbreak peak is 2nd quar- ter of each year, the first quarter is a low incidence. SARIMA （0,1,1） （0,1,0） 12 is well fitted to the time series of the past pe- riod, and the prediction of July-Dee in 2014 and the actual incidence trend is consistent, the average relative error is 13.09, the average relative error is 9.79%. Conclusion SARIMA model can better fit the trend of the time variation of foot-mouth disease in Dongguan City, and can be used to predict the future incidence.
出处
《中国医院统计》
2016年第1期8-11,共4页
Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics
关键词
手足口病
流行状况
SARIMA模型
预测
hand-foot-mouth disease
epidemic situation
SARIMA model
prediction
