摘要
为明确城市能源系统状况,需对城市能源体系进行全面而细致的了解,本文在全面分析城市能源系统的基础上,建立了城市能源系统能源流动图,并对其进行简化建立适合建模的简化模型。进而对城市能源系统进行研究,归纳出城市能源系统的影响指标。然后利用层次分析法筛选出其中对评价对象辨别能力较强的关键因素,结合相应环境因素,建立了能够全面反映城市能源系统的综合评价指标体系。本文首次将模糊综合评价模型引入到能源评价体系权重确定中来,建立了多级城市能源系统综合评价指标体系模糊综合评价模型。通过对北京市2000-2007年相关能源数据进行实证分析,结果表明所建评价体系能够根据优化权重结果找出评价对象问题所在,加大评价对象的差异性,放大评价对象间的对比程度,使得评价结果更加明显;同时和等权重计算结果比较分析发现,优化后的评价结果更加合理,并更加接近城市能源的实际状况,能够为城市能源系统规划提供合理的量化依据。
In order to clarify and find out the status of the urban energy system,an urban energy flow diagram was made based on analyzing the urban energy system in full scale.The paper simplified the urban energy flow diagram into an energy flow model in order to collect evaluation indexes.Then this paper sets up a sustainable evaluation system for the urban energy system integrating the key factors of energy system,which are selected from the evaluation indexes using Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP）,with environments factors.And the Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Eualuation（AHP-FCE） is firstly imported into the energy evaluation system to construct multi-step computing model for the urban energy sustainable evaluation system.By analyzing data of the energy and economy of Beijing during 2000-2007,the results showed that the evaluation system could make the evaluation result more significant after optimizing.And the optimized weight could be used to find out problems and enlarge the difference and contrast degree between the evaluation objects.After comparing to that of the same weight,the result showed that the optimized result was quite reasonable and close to the fact,and could provide the justice evidences and applicable suggestions for making the urban energy system planning.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第11期1-6,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题(编号:2009BAC64B02)资助
关键词
城市
能源系统
可持续发展
指标权重
评价体系
urban energy system
sustainable development
weight of the Index
evaluation system
