摘要
灌溉用水量的预测影响因素很多,属于灰色系统问题。用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测铁甲灌区灌溉用水量,因相对误差较大,对残差进行修正。修正后的模型明显优于原模型,使用3种方法进行精度检验,都能达到要求,说明残差修正模型预测铁甲灌区短期灌溉用水量是可行的。
The forecasting of irrigation water use is influenced by many factors and it belongs to the gray system. After introducing the gray model simply, the paper forecasts irrigation water use of Tiejia irrigation area with GM（ 1,1 ） model and the relative error is large. The remaining modified model is superior to the original one obviously. Using three methods to carry on the accuracy test, the modified model can meet all of the requirements. The remaining modified model can be used to forecast short - term irrigation water use of Tiejia irrigation area.
出处
《水利科技与经济》
2007年第6期388-390,共3页
Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy
基金
辽宁省教育厅科技攻关项目(05L385)
水利部"948"科技创新项目(CT200516)
关键词
灰色模型
灌溉用水量
残差修正
精度检验
预测
gray model
irrigation water use
remaining modify
accuracy test
forecasting
