摘要
交通事故预测是交通安全研究的重要分支,是提高道路交通安全管理水平的基础。针对道路交通事故的预测问题,以灰色预测模型为基础,建立残差灰色预测模型对交通事故进行预测。结果表明:残差灰色预测模型预测结果的平均相对误差比基本灰色预测模型降低了63.13%。实践证明该模型具有简便实用、预测精度高的优点。
The traffic accident forecast is an important aspect of traffic safety research, and it is also the basis of improving the traffic safety management. In terms of road traffic accident forecast, residual error gray forecast model has been established to forecast road traffic accident on the basis of gray forecast model. As a result,in comparison with gray forecast model,more than 63.13 % in average relative error reduction has been observed with residual error gray forecast model. Therefore, in road traffic accident forecast, residual error gray forecast model was easy, practical and feasible, which also had high accuracy.
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2009年第1期33-34,共2页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
基金
福建省科技厅资助项目(2007F3078)
关键词
交通事故
灰色模型
残差
预测
traffic accident
gray model
residual error
forecast
