摘要
在分析现有灌溉用水量预测方法的基础上,运用灰色系统理论建立了等维新息模型GM(1,1),并用同步残差等维新息模型进行修正。结果表明,该模型能够及时更新数据信息,使模型保持良好的适应性,有效提高了预测精度。最后应用该模型对宝鸡峡灌区灌溉用水量进行预测检验,结果表明模型具有较高的预测精度。
The prediction of irrigation water quantity is a dynamic and non-balance process.Presently,the prediction uses the regression analysis and water balance theory.However,the factors have great effects on the prediction.In the paper,the equal-dimension and new-info model GM(1,1),which could be applied to predicting the consumption of irrigation water,was developed according to the gray system theory firstly;then it was modified with residual theory.The model can refresh data in time,can keep adaptability,and has higher precision.This model was used to predict the irrigation water consumption in Baojixia irrigation region,the result shows the model has higher precision.
出处
《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第9期115-118,共4页
Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
陕西省水利厅科技计划项目(2003SK-23)
关键词
灰色系统
等维新息模型
灌溉用水量预测
宝鸡峡灌区
gray system
the equal-dimension and new-info model
irrigation water consumption prediction
Baojixia irrigation region
