摘要
应用微分方程建立起一个可动态反映传染病情变化规律的数学模型,通过模型求解得到的函数表达式基本能正确反映SARS疫情的变化趋势(例如高峰时间、疫情的持续长度,关键因素).模型所确定的指标不具有唯一性,只是一种预测.模型里的关键参数感染率K、治愈率μ对模型的预测与刻画至关重要,但是它们的精确获取却很困难,通过模型的建立可知,感染率K、治愈率μ决定了SARS的规模和时间长短.通过对北京数据的参考可得,提前或延后5天采取严格的隔离措施,可使疫情的传播提前或推后20～30天.
By using the differential equation, the model is set up to reflect the variation of SARS disease dynamically, the solution to which gives its expression to the trend of change on SARS disease such as peak period,lasting time and key factors. The parameters are not sole in character that the index can be forecasted only. It's necessary to determine K (infection rate) and μ (cure rate), but it's difficult to get the accurate result .The scale and lasting time depend on K and μ, which draws high attention of government.Referring to data about Beijing, we know that isolation measure taken ahead or delaying for 5 days makes the propagation of disease ahead or delaying for 20 to 30 days.
出处
《兰州工业高等专科学校学报》
2004年第3期5-8,18,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou Higher Polytechnical College
