摘要
首先利用疾病传播的规律建立了SIR型传染病传播机理的微分方程模型,根据历史资料对模型中的参数进行多项式回归,得出回归曲线。基于此模型建立了甲型H1N1的动态预测模型,并以2009年全国的甲型H1N1数据为例进行了预测和分析,预测结果显示该模型具有一定的精度和可行性,可以给相关部门提供切实可行的参考建议。
First,according to the spread law of disease,set up SIR differential model for the spread of epidemic,based on history data,established polynomial fitting method to the parameters of the model,get the regression curve.Dynamic prediction model was established based on this model,and an example of a prediction and analysis mode was established based on the 2009national influenza H1N1data,the forecast results show that the model has a certain degree of accuracy and feasibility,feasible recommendations can be provided to the relevant departments.
出处
《数理医药学杂志》
2013年第1期10-13,共4页
Journal of Mathematical Medicine
基金
成都中医药大学校基金资助
项目编号:ZRMS201260
