摘要
目的:采用疾病传播动力学模型描述鼠疫的流行特征,为科学地制定鼠疫的防控措施提供理论依据。方法:运用微分方程建立鼠间鼠疫和人间鼠疫的传播动力学模型,分析模型中各参数与疫情发展变化的关系。结果:使用基本繁殖率,平均鼠密度,感染者平均病死率,感染者平均治愈率等参数描述感染率随时间的变化趋势。结论:根据鼠间传播期、疫区传播期和人群扩散期的传播特点,分别开展各项防控工作,能够更好地控制鼠疫疫情。
Objective： The epidemic features of plague was descriptived by disease transmission dynamics model to provide theoretical basis for making scientific prevention and control measures.Methods： Differential equation was used to establish the transmission dynamics model of rat plague and human plague.The relationship between the parameters in the model and the development of the plague was analysed in this article.Results：The basic reproduction rate,the average rat density,the average mortality of an infective person,the average recovery rate of an infective person and some other parameters were used to explore the trend of prevalence.Conclusion： The control and prevention of plague epidemic can be more effective if we take countermeasures according to its transmission chracteristics in each stage.
出处
《现代生物医学进展》
CAS
2012年第20期3838-3841,共4页
Progress in Modern Biomedicine
关键词
鼠疫
数学模型
传播动力学
Plague
Mathematical model
Transmission dynamics
