摘要
如果承认现代社会是风险社会,以及外部的不确定性威胁与人类的风险意识有同步增强的趋势,那么,也必须承认需要将风险决策研究提上议事日程,然而,此项研究未得到学界应有的重视。与危机决策相比,风险决策在因果逻辑上具有的“前提性”和在实践逻辑上具有的“优先性”,也长期被忽视。为此,理解风险决策的研究价值,分析决策过程中所涉及的科学判断与政策选择之间的关系,厘定政府风险管理的指导原则与基本责任,成为本项研究的核心关切。本文指出,风险决策的实践逻辑围绕科学评估与政策过程的互动展开,其中,决策者具有主导作用,既会依赖科学评估,也会无视科学评估,还会裁剪科学评估。在某种程度上,科学评估对于政府决策的驱动力并没有想象中的大。由此,在面对需要专家知识的不确定性风险领域,决策者不应以专家评估为借口来推卸对风险决策的担当和风险管理的责任。坚持底线思维、强化预防为主的原则,做好风险防范的全面准备,把握战略上的主动和战术上的先机,应成为风险决策的基本指导思想。
If we recognize that modern society is a risk society,and the external uncertain threat has the trend of increasing,we must also recognize the need to put the research of risk decision-making on the agenda.However,this research has not received the due attention of the academic community.Compared with crisis decision-making,That the"premise"of risk decision-making in causal logic and"priority"in practical logic have also been ignored for a long time.Therefore,understanding the research value of risk decision-making,analyzing the relationship between scientific judgment and policy choice involved in the decision-making process,and determining the guiding principles and basic responsibilities of government risk management have become the core concerns of this study.This paper points out that the practical logic of risk decision-making revolves around the interaction between scientific evaluation and policy process,in which decision-makers play a leading role.To a certain extent,the driving force of scientific evaluation for government decision-making is not as big as expected.Therefore,in the face of the highly uncertain risk field with high need for expert knowledge,decision makers should not use expert evaluation as an excuse to shirk their responsibility for risk decision-making and risk management.Adhering to the principle of thinking worst-case scenarios and strengthening prevention,making comprehensive preparations for risk prevention,and grasping the strategic initiative and tactical opportunity should become the basic guiding ideology of risk decision-making.
出处
《中国应急管理科学》
2022年第3期69-77,共9页
Journal of China Emergency Management Science
关键词
风险决策
危机决策
科学评估
政策过程
预防为主
risk decision-making
crisis decision-making
scientific evaluation
policy process
prevention-oriented strategic approach
