摘要
为了应对新冠肺炎疫情对于消费与内需的巨大冲击,众多地方政府发行了政府消费券。利用离散时间事件史研究方法,本文从政策扩散的角度探究了在新冠肺炎疫情造成的深度不确定性条件下影响地方政府采纳与出台政府消费券的因素。本文发现:第一,现实治理问题是影响政府消费券扩散的事件性因素,经济增长受新冠肺炎疫情影响更严重的城市,更有可能发行政府消费券政策;第二,各地长期经济发展水平与财政承受能力是影响政府消费券扩散的重要内部因素;第三,地方政府间的政策模仿会促进政府消费券的横向扩散;第四,上级政府的政策引导对地方政府采纳政府消费券具有显著效应。与此同时,本文也发现以上不同影响机制在东部地区与中西部地区具有异质性。本文拓展了在深度不确定性条件下关于政策扩散机制的认识,对于理解统筹疫情防控与经济社会发展过程中不同层级政府的行为逻辑具有启发意义。
Government shopping coupon has become an important method for many local governments to deal with the negative impact of consumption and domestic demand caused by Covid-19 epidemic.In this paper,I use discrete time event history analysis method to investigate the diffusion mechanism of government shopping coupon program under deep uncertainty.The findings show:1)government issue is an event factor,and cities where economic growth is more affected by Covid-19 are more likely to issue government shopping coupon programs.2)the level of economic development and financial affordability are the internal reasons of the diffusion of government shopping coupon program.3)Imitation effects among local governments will also promote the horizontal diffusion of government shopping coupon program.4)The policy guidance of the superior government plays a significant role in the vertical diffusion of government shopping coupon program.Besides,I find diffusion mechanisms have heterogeneity among different regions.These findings are instructive for understanding the policy diffusion mechanism under deep uncertainty,and have enlightening significance to understand the behavioral logic of different level governments when coordinate epidemic control with economic and social development.
出处
《实证社会科学》
2022年第1期94-122,共29页
Social Science Research
基金
湖南省自然科学基金青年项目(2021JJ40134)
湖南大学中央高校基本科研业务费(531118010506)
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题(XSP21YBZ036)
关键词
新冠肺炎疫情
深度不确定性
政府消费券
政策扩散
Covid-19 Epidemic
deep uncertainty
government shopping coupon program
policy diffusion
