摘要
本文旨在研究上海市机构养老服务供给预测,回顾2010~2019年上海机构养老服务服务供给情况,预测分析2020~2025年上海机构养老服务发展趋势,为机构养老服务发展提供数据支持。方法:构建GM(1,1)模型预测上海机构养老服务供给情况,推断供给的变化趋势。结果:2020~2025年,上海机构养老服务供给持续增长,但是养老机构数量以及床位数量处于较低水平且增速未达到十年前的平均增速。结论:今后仍要加强机构养老服务供给增长速度,提高床位利用率,鼓励多元主体参与养老服务,优化养老服务资源的配置,确保养老服务的高质量发展。
This paper focuses on studying the supplies forecast of institutional pension service in Shanghai, reviewing the supply of institutional pension service in Shanghai from 2010 to 2019, predicting and analyzing the development trend of institutional pension service in Shanghai from 2020 to 2025, and providing data support for the development of institutional pension service. Methods: A GM(1,1) model was constructed to predict the supply of institutional pension service in Shanghai, and to in-fer the changing trend of supply. Results: From 2020 to 2025, the supply of institutional pension service in Shanghai continued to grow, but the number of pension service and the number of beds were at a low level and the growth rate that did not reach the average growth rate ten years ago. Conclusion: In the future, it is still necessary to strengthen the growth rate of institutional pension service supply, improve the utilization rate of beds, encourage multiple subjects to participate in elderly care services, optimize the allocation of elderly care service resources, and ensure the high-quality development of pension service.
出处
《应用数学进展》
2022年第9期6255-6264,共10页
Advances in Applied Mathematics
