摘要
卫生总费用是评价一个国家或地区卫生投入水平和资金利用状况的重要指标。文章采用2005—2018年《上海市统计年鉴》相关数据,利用ARIMA模型与灰色GM(1,1)模型,分别对上海市卫生总费用及其占国内生产总值(GDP)比重发展趋势进行预测分析。研究发现,2018—2025年上海市卫生总费用及其占GDP比重将继续保持稳定增长,预测结果显示,2025年上海市卫生总费用及其占GDP比重将分别达到4765.19亿元(8.53%)、5976.59亿元(10.21%)。所建立的ARIMA模型与灰色GM(1,1)模型平均相对误差均小于10%,拟合度较好、预测精度较高,但灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测效果要优于ARIMA模型。文章提出今后上海市应在保持卫生总费用继续投入的基础上,控制其合理增长;保持卫生费用的投入与经济发展水平恰当匹配,提高卫生效率,为居民提供更高质量、更加普惠、更有效率的健康服务。
Total health expenditure is an important index to evaluate the health investment level and fund utilization status of a country or region.Based on the data of Shanghai Statistical Yearbook from 2005 to 2018,ARIMA model and grey GM(1,1)model were used to forecast and analyze the development trend of total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP in Shanghai.The study found that the total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP of Shanghai would continue to grow steadily from 2018 to 2025.The forecast results showed that the total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP of Shanghai would reach 476.519 billion yuan,597.659 billion yuan,8.53% and 10.21% respectively in 2025.The average relative errors of the established ARIMA model and the grey GM(1,1)model were both less than 10%,and the fitting degree was good and the prediction accuracy was high,but the grey GM(1,1)model was better than the ARIMA model.The paper puts forward that Shanghai should control the reasonable increase of the total health expenditure on the basis of keeping the investment,maintain proper matching between health expenditure and the level of economic development,improve health efficiency,and provide people with higher quality,more inclusive and more efficient health services.
作者
丁海峰
李立清
DING Haifeng;LI Liqing(School of Public Administration and Law,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China)
出处
《南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第5期418-423,共6页
Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences）
基金
国家社会科学基金后期资助重点项目“我国农村公共产品供给标准理论与实践研究”(20FGLA001)
湖南省哲学社会科学成果评审委员会立项资助重大项目“湖南省农村智慧健康养老体系研究”(XSP21ZDA001)。
