摘要
为准确评价水资源的脆弱性程度,鉴于组合赋权法精度不足等缺点,提出了基于概率论的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合方法,并应用于河南省某市2013年的水资源脆弱性综合评价中。结果表明,某市2013年的水资源脆弱性评价等级为较不脆弱,与实际情况一致。改进后的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合随机评价方法采用了组合赋权法和相对隶属度综合确定权重,从指标间和指标内部两个方面确定指标权重,使评价结果更加趋于合理。研究成果可为水资源管理和开发提供依据。
In order to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources accurately and overcome the shortcomings of combination weighting method,the Bayesian formula and fuzzy recognition coupling method based probability theory are proposed,and applied to the comprehensive evaluation of water resources vulnerability in a city in Henan Province in 2013.The results show that the water resources vulnerability assessment level of a city in 2013 is not fragile,which is consistent with the actual situation.The improved Bayesian formula and fuzzy recognition coupling random evaluation method use the combination weighting method and relative membership degree to determine the weight,and determine the index weight from the two aspects of the index and the internal index.So,the evaluation results are more reasonable.The research results can provide basis for water resources management and development.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2017年第9期42-45,32,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
福建省教育厅科技项目(JA13233)
厦门市重大科技项目(3502Z20111008)
关键词
贝叶斯公式
随机不确定性
组合赋权法
水资源脆弱性评价
Bayesian formula
random uncertainty
combination weight method
water resources vulnerability evaluation
