摘要
在收入水平继续提高、消费结构继续转型升级以及人口呈刚性增长的背景下,未来中国食物消费增长有潜力有空间。利用2000—2016年国家统计局和联合国商品贸易数据库数据,在分析中国食物与营养供给的基础上,测算中国食物与营养自给率,并分析中美贸易摩擦新背景下对食物安全供给的影响,提出保障中国食物需求的策略。研究发现,中国绝大部分食物的自给程度处于较高水平,食物自给的短板主要在油籽。入世以来,中国热量、蛋白质、脂肪和碳水化合物的自给率均呈现不同程度的下降。对比各个国家的热量自给率发现中国热量自给率处于相对较高水平,但总体呈现下降趋势。中美贸易摩擦新背景下中国大豆和高粱供给会受到一定影响。未来保障食物安全需要注重粮食生产,保障口粮绝对安全;加快农业结构优化和升级,提升竞争力;在开放视角下确保食物适度进口,推进进口市场多元化;加强食物浪费管理,倡导健康营养的膳食模式。
Using data from the NBSC and UNcomtrade from 2000—2016,this paper analyze China’s food and nutrition supply status,the changes in the self-sufficiency rate of food and nutrition.Then the impact of trade war on food safety supply is analyzed and strategies for ensuring China’s food needs are summarized.The study found that the self-sufficiency of most foods in China is at a relatively high level,and the short-board of food self-sufficiency is mainly in oilseeds.Since China’s accession to the WTO,the self-sufficiency rate of energy,protein,fat,and carbohydrate in China has declined to varying degrees.Comparing energy self-sufficiency rates in various countries,China’s energy self-sufficiency rate is relatively high,but overall it shows a downward trend.Under the new background of trade war,the supply of soybeans and sorghum in China will be affected.To ensure food safety in the future,we must pay attention to food production and ensure the safety of rations.We must ensure that food is properly imported from an open perspective and promote the diversification of the import market.We must strengthen food waste management and advocate healthy and nutritious dietary patterns.
作者
李国景
陈永福
焦月
韩昕儒
LI Guojing;CHEN Yongfu;JIAO Yue;HAN Xinru
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期94-104,共11页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球化背景下气候变化与生物能源发展对玉米供求的影响及政策模拟”(编号:71473251)
关键词
食物
营养
自给率
保障需求
Food
Nutrition
Self-sufficiency rate
Assurance demand
