摘要
乳制品价格与居民收入已成为限制居民奶类消费增长的重要因素,当任何一种乳制品价格上涨,城镇居民会倾向于购买其他乳制品替代。本文基于2018年中国6座典型城市3000户居民的调查数据,运用QUAIDS模型分析由巴氏杀菌乳、灭菌乳、常温酸奶、低温酸奶、奶粉、奶酪和奶油的价格变化所导致的需求变化特征,并进一步采用Tobit模型考察收入对乳制品消费结构的替代影响。结果表明,收入和价格是影响城镇居民乳制品消费增长的主要因素,各类乳制品之间的相互替代性较强,随着居民收入水平的持续提高,消费者更偏好于奶酪、奶油、巴氏杀菌乳消费,各类乳制品的消费量也将进一步增长,巴氏杀菌乳增长将快于其他乳制品。
Dairy product prices and residents’income have become important factors limiting the growth of residents’milk consumption.Urban residents will tend to buy other dairy products for replacement when the price of anyone dairy product rises.Based on the survey data of 3,000 households in 6 typical cities nationwide in 2018,this paper uses the QUAIDS model to analyze the characteristics of demand changes caused by the price changes of pasteurized milk,sterilized milk,room temperature yogurt,low-temperature yogurt,milk powder,and cheese cream.The Tobit model was used to investigate the substitution effect of income on the consumption structure of dairy products as well.The results show that income and price are the main factors affecting the consumption growth of urban residents’dairy products,and the mutual substitution between various types of dairy products is strong.As the income level of residents continues to increase,consumers prefer cheese cream and pasteurization.Milk consumption,consumption of various dairy products will also further increase,pasteurized milk growth will be faster than other dairy products.
作者
杨祯妮
肖湘怡
程广燕
YANG Zhenni;XIAO Xiangyi;CHENG Guangyan
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期121-132,共12页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
中国农业科学院重大科研项目“牛奶优质化科研攻关(牛奶乳脂肪乳蛋白形成调控机理及品质评价):子课题(牛奶营养健康效用评价及消费推进政策研究)”(编号:CAAS-ZDXT2019004)
农业农村部食物与营养发展研究所科技创新工程项目“牛奶优质化发展制约因素及推进建议”(编号:ASTIP2020-8)。
关键词
乳制品
消费结构
居民收入
乳品价格
Dairy products
Consumption structure
Household income
Dairy products price
