摘要
对"一带一路"沿线64个国家与中国之间的贸易依赖程度进行综合分析,并对中国的主要贸易伙伴国(印度、新加坡、马来西亚、俄罗斯和泰国)与中国之间的商品贸易影响因素进行探究。结论如下:中国与东亚、东南亚、中东各国的贸易依赖程度较强,与中东欧各国的依赖程度较弱;与土库曼斯坦的贸易依赖度增速最快,与克罗地亚、罗马尼亚的贸易依赖程度减弱速度较快。中国向五国出口的商品以劳动力密集型为主;从俄罗斯进口矿产品居多,从新、马、泰进口机电产品居多,从印度进口的最主要商品由矿产品转变为纺织品。定量模型的分析结果表明,地理距离、经济规模是影响中国与主要贸易伙伴国依赖程度的主要因素。
The Silk Road economic belt and maritime Silk Road(abbreviated as One Belt and One Road) has been widely concerned since it was proposed. Trade exchanges and cooperation among countries along the One Belt and One Road have been gradually deepened. Meanwhile, the position of these countries in the global trade market is also rising. This paper calculated the interdependency between China and countries along the One Belt and One Road comprehensively,and then explored the impact factors of the trade between China and the major trading partners such as India, Singapore,Malaysia, Russia and Thailand. The results show that the trade interdependency between China and East Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East countries are strongest; and interdependency between China with Central and Eastern European countries are weakest; the trade interdependency between China and Turkmenistan is the rapidly growing part, but they are gradually decreased between China and Croatia and Romania. China's labor-intensive products are the main export commodities to the five countries; mineral products take up the biggest share and become the first major import goods from Russia, the main import commodities from Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand are electromechanical products, and textile replaced minerals become one of the main import products from India. The study on trade potential suggests that geographical distance and economic aggregation have been the most significant variables impacting on the trade interdependency between China and major trading partners. So economic and trade cooperation between China and countries along 'One Belt and One Road' should be strengthened.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期21-31,共11页
Economic Geography
基金
中国科学院STS项目(KFJ-EW-STS-003
KFJ-EW-STS-089)
关键词
一带一路
贸易份额指数
贸易密切度指数
HM指数
引力模型
One Belt and One Road
the share of trade
trade intensity index
Hubness Measurement(HM) index
gravity model
