摘要
"一带一路"倡议关涉中国及世界的发展,从大战略理论出发排序倡议推进面临的各类风险强度,可助力有限资源优化配置下的轻重缓急式应对。量化界定"一带一路"的倡议目标及手段,并对目标与手段、手段与手段进行向量自回归分析,便可客观评估倡议推进风险强度排序。透过该方法对"一带一路"在新加坡的推进进行案例分析,得出与定性经验事实大致相符的风险强度排序。就此,中国除需在政治手段领域进行重点对冲外,还要思考整体倡议推进手段层面的宏观协同反制。而基于新加坡"截面数据"进行的分析尝试,希望为之后关涉更多国家的"面板数据"研究奠定基础。
＂The Belt and Road＂initiative concerns the development of China and the world,and a clear ranking of its risks involved from the Grand Strategy theory would help optimize the allocation of limited resources. Based on quantitatively measuring initiative objective and means of＂The Belt and Road＂, then through the Vector Autoregressive method applied to the analysis of the objective and means,and those among the means,we hope to determine the ranking of risks by intensity. Take Singapore as an example,the ranking of risks is consistent with the empirical facts. For China, it is imperative to formulate a macro-level coordination of its initiative means,along with making hedges with political means. The above attempts,based on cross sectional data of Singapore,are expected to lay the foundation for future research using multiple country panel data.
作者
杨达
YANC Da(School of Public Administration of Cuizhou University, Cuiyang, Cuizhou 550025, China)
出处
《贵州财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期30-40,共11页
Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"‘一带一路’战略风险及系统应对研究"(项目号:16XGJ010)的阶段性成果
关键词
“一带一路”倡议
大战略理论
风险评估
＂The Belt and Road＂initiative；grand strategy theroy；risk assessment
