摘要
自中亚国家独立以来,主要域外大国俄罗斯、美国和中国在中亚形成“错位竞争”互动关系模式。“错位”主要体现在:一是俄美中对中亚地区的定位有差别;二是在俄美中对中亚的投入上,俄罗斯投入最多,中美次之;三是俄美中在中亚的影响分领域,俄主要在政治和安全领域,美主要在社会领域,中则主要在经济领域。形成这一模式的主要原因:一是俄美中在中亚的战略目标不同,俄试图恢复在中亚的传统优势地位,美致力于“遏制、整合和塑造”,中则追求稳定西部边疆和发展“一带一路”;二是俄美中在中亚的威胁和机会感知不同,俄对中亚威胁和机会感知较高,美较低,中则三者居中;三是俄美中在中亚的比较优势不同,俄主要在历史、文化、经济领域,美在规范和机制、盟友两个方面,而中主要在经济领域。“错位的竞争”模式在短期内维持了中亚地区的秩序稳定,也使中亚国家开展“多元平衡”外交成为可能。然而,近年来俄美中对中亚地区的关注和投入增大,互动关系中“错位”的程度正趋于减弱,域外大国在中亚地区的竞争将日益激烈。
Since the independence of Central Asian countries,the major extra-regional powers,namely Russia,the United States,and China,have engaged in a pattern of"misaligned competition"in their interactions in Central Asia.The"misalignment"is reflected in several key areas.Firstly,Russia,the United States and China hold disparate positions on Central Asia.Secondly,Russia has invested the most in Central Asia among the three countries,followed by China and the United States.Thirdly,in terms of influence in Central Asia,Russia is primarily engaged in politics and security,the United States in the social sphere,and China in the economic domain.The principal factors that have led to the formation of this pattern are as follows:Firstly,Russia,the United States,and China each have distinct strategic objectives with regard to Central Asia.Russia is attempting to regain its historical preeminence in Central Asia,the United States is dedicated to"containment,integration and shaping",and China is focused on maintaining stability along its western border and advancing the"Belt and Road"initiative.Secondly,the perception of threats and opportunities in Central Asia differs between Russia,the United States,and China.Russia identifies a greater number of threats and opportunities in Central Asia than the United States,while China's perception of these factors falls somewhere between the two.Thirdly,the three countries have disparately comparative advantages in Central Asia.Russia's advantages are primarily historical,cultural,and economic,while the United States'advantages are normative and institutional,as wll as the presence of allies.China's advantages are primarily economic.The"misaligned competition"pattern has maintained order and stability in Central Asia in the short term and has also enabled Central Asian countries to engage in"multi-balancing"diplomacy.In recent years,however,Russia,the United States,and China have increased their attention and investment in Central Asia.As a result,the degree of misalignment in their interac
作者
曾向红
王子寒
Zeng Xianghong;Wang Zihan
出处
《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》
CSSCI
2024年第6期23-48,158,159,共28页
Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies
基金
2024年度兰州大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”战略发展专项项目“俄乌冲突以来中亚地区形势的变化与中国的中亚政策研究”(2024jbkyzx003)的阶段性成果。
