摘要
2020年后,中亚国家基本进入政治上独立后第二代领导人执政、社会中民族情绪增长、经济上寻求建立新的产业链和拓展对外合作新通道的新发展阶段,提出新的发展思路和任务目标。中亚地区的力量结构也因新冠疫情、美军从阿富汗撤军以及俄罗斯深陷乌克兰战场而出现变化,呈现地区内部一体化加速、俄在中亚影响力虽仍占优势但已弱化、外部力量快速进入三大趋势,为中亚国家夯实多元平衡外交提供了机遇。中亚国家积极与世界大国、周边大国保持友好合作关系,向东与中国、向南与海湾阿拉伯国家和土耳其、向西与美欧关系发展进展显著。这在一定程度上引起俄罗斯的警觉。中亚国家的多元平衡外交对中国既是机遇也是挑战。在政治安全、经济发展、安全可控、平衡外交四个方面对华需求增加的同时,多国竞技加剧也必然会加大中国的竞争压力。如何巧用变局提高中国在中亚的影响力,是个值得思考的新课题。
After 2020,Central Asian countries have basically entered a new stage of development.Specifically,the second generation of post-independence leaders have gradually been in power.National sentiments are growing in their society,and these countries all seek to establish new industrial chains and expand new channels for foreign cooperation.The power structure in Central Asia has also changed due to the COVID-19 epidemic,the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan,and Russia's deep involvement in the battlefield in Ukraine.The integration within the region is accelerating,Russia's influence in Central Asia is still dominant but has weakened,and interferences from external forces rapidly increase.All these factors have provided opportunities for Central Asian countries to consolidate their pluralistic and balanced diplomacy.Central Asian countries actively maintain friendly and cooperative relations with world powers and neighboring powers.They have made significant progress in developing relations with China to the east,with Gulf Arab countries and Turkey to the south,and with the United States and Europe to the west.This has alarmed Russia to a certain extent.The pluralistic and balanced diplomacy of Central Asian countries presents both opportunities and challenges to China.While the demand of Central Asian countries for China is increasing in political security,economic development,security controllability,and balanced diplomacy,the intensification of great power competition will inevitably increase China's pressure.How to make clever use of changes in Central Asia and increase China's influence in this region is a topic worth thinking.
出处
《俄罗斯学刊》
2024年第6期5-23,共19页
Academic Journal of Russian Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“百年变局与中国周边安全新态势研究”(项目批准号:23&ZD331)阶段性成果。
关键词
中亚
多元外交
人类命运共同体
平衡外交
Central Asia
pluralistic diplomacy
a community with a shared future for mankind
balanced diplomacy
