摘要
【目的】“一带一路”倡议是中国对外政策和未来对外开放合作的核心,分析中国与“一带一路”沿线国家化石能源贸易格局及效率,对促进能源高质量发展,保障中国与沿线国家能源安全具有重要意义。【方法】利用CHRTD资源贸易数据库2000—2020年中国进口“一带一路”沿线国家化石能源贸易数据,基于有序聚类法、生存分析模型和随机前沿引力模型,探讨了中国与“一带一路”沿线国家化石能源贸易时空演变格局及其贸易效率。【结果】(1)2000—2020年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的化石能源进口阶段特征明显,贸易国(地区)数量不断增加,进口量呈逐年上升的趋势。其中,天然气进口占比明显增加;(2)能源贸易较为稳定,贸易关系的生存率较高,但仍存在能源贸易活跃度较低现象;(3)GDP、经济结构和距离等是影响中国能源进口贸易的重要因素,能源贸易效率总体较低,高值国家数量较少,且呈现零星分布。在适用时变模型的能源中,煤炭进口额的贸易效率呈逐年降低的趋势,而天然气的进口额贸易效率和进口量贸易效率则呈上升趋势。【结论】中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的化石能源进口贸易合作逐渐深入,但总体的贸易效率仍然较低,进一步提升区域互联互通能力,制定更加精细化的贸易管理政策,是降低能源贸易风险的重要路径。
[Objective] The Belt and Road Initiative is the core of China's foreign policy and future opening-up and international cooperation.It is of great significance to analyze the pattern and efficiency of fossil energy trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road to promote the high-quality development of energy along the Belt and Road and ensure China's energy security.[Methods] Based on the fossil energy trade data of China's import countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2020 in the CHRTD resource trade database,this study explored the spatial and temporal change patterns and efficiency of fossil energy trade between China and these countries based on the ordered clustering method,survival analysis model,and stochastic frontier gravity model.[Results] The main results are as follows:From 2000 to 2020,China's fossil energy import experienced obviously different stages,the number of trading countries was increasing,and the import volume was increasing year by year.Among them,the proportion of natural gas imports increased significantly;energy trade was relatively stable,and the survival rate of trade relations was high,but there were still some low energy trade activities.GDP,economic structure,and spatial distance were important factors that affected China's energy imports.Energy import efficiency was generally low,and high-value countries was in small number and spatially scattered.Among the energy sources where the time-varying model is applicable,the trade efficiency of coal imports was decreasing year by year,while the import value and volume of natural gas were on the rise.[Conclusion] China's fossil energy import trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road has gradually deepened,but the overall trade efficiency is still low.Further improving regional connectivity and formulating more refined trade management policies are important ways to reduce energy trade risks.
作者
张鹏岩
常迎辉
刘宇
张金炳
刘振岳
ZHANG Pengyan;CHANG Yinghui;LIU Yu;ZHANG Jinbing;LIU Zhenyue(School of Urban Economics and Public Administration,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;College of Geography and Environmental Science,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第9期1836-1851,共16页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72125010,72243011)
北京大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目
2022年中原青年拔尖人才项目。
关键词
能源贸易
贸易效率
生存分析模型
随机前沿引力模型
一带一路
energy trade
trade efficiency
survival analysis model
stochastic frontier gravity model
the Belt and Road
