摘要
森林具有强大的碳汇功能,林业碳汇项目是实现碳达峰目标的中坚力量。合理评估林业碳汇项目价值有助于加速林业碳汇市场的发展,缓解我国碳排放压力。以浙江省仙台县碳汇造林项目为研究对象,基于二叉树期权定价方法,采用GARCH模型估计价值波动率参数,实证检验了期权价值对林业碳汇项目经济价值的附加作用。结果表明:期权价值对提升林业碳汇项目价值有显著的正向效益,考虑期权价值使得项目价值提高了71.5%。敏感性分析表明价值波动率与项目期权价格呈同向变动关系,采用GARCH模型估测价值波动率对林业碳汇项目定价具有重要意义。基于研究结论,提出建议:明确碳汇交易规则,健全碳汇市场定价机制;促进碳汇金融创新,推动投资策略多元化。
Forestry resources possess a strong carbon sequestration function and are a cornerstone in achieving carbon peak goals.Reasonable assessment of forestry carbon sequestration project value can accelerate the development of the forestry carbon sequestration market and alleviate China’s carbon emission pressure.This paper takes the carbon sequestration afforestation project in Xiantai County,Zhejiang Province as the research object.Using binomial option pricing method and the GARCH model,this paper estimates the value volatility parameter,and empirically examines the additional impact of option value on the economic value of forestry carbon sequestration projects.The finding shows that the option value has a significant positive effect on enhancing the value of forestry carbon sequestration projects,increasing the project value by 71.5%when considering the option value.By sensitivity analysis,the value volatility and project option price move in the same direction.Using the GARCH model to estimate value volatility is of great significance in pricing forestry carbon sequestration projects.Based on the research conclusions,the following recommendations are proposed:clarify the rules for carbon sink trading and improve the pricing mechanism of the carbon sink market;and promote financial innovation in carbon sinks and encourage diversification of investment strategies.
作者
蒋心怡
JIANG Xinyi(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)
出处
《中国林业经济》
2024年第3期53-61,共9页
China Forestry Economics
基金
南京林业大学2023年创新创业训练计划项目(202310298025Z)。
关键词
林业碳汇项目
实物期权
GARCH模型
二叉树模型
Forestry carbon sequestration project
Physical option
GARCH model
Binary tree model
