摘要
【目的】研究不同地貌区粮食生产格局与区域耕地资源的匹配关系,为粮食生产布局和耕地资源保护提供决策依据。【方法】采用集中度、变异系数、重心模型、匹配度和LMDI模型等研究湖北省1990—2020年不同地貌区粮食生产格局变化与耕地资源的匹配关系。【结果】1990—2020年鄂西山地、鄂中岗地、鄂东丘陵、江汉平原粮食产量占湖北省粮食总产量的比重逐步调整为11.2%、30.6%、26.2%、32.0%。近30年湖北省各地貌区粮食作物生产集中度及变化趋势存在显著差异,粮食生产向鄂中岗地集中的趋势明显,以小麦和玉米为主,大豆生产则向江汉平原集中。湖北省粮食播种面积重心和粮食产量重心向西北方向移动了5.37和14.63 km,但鄂中岗地粮食生产重心向东北方向移动,江汉平原和鄂西山地则向西南移动。近30年来,鄂西山地、鄂中岗地、鄂东丘陵、江汉平原粮食生产与耕地资源重心的平均空间距离为6.20、3.35、10.57、6.82 km,变动一致性平均指数分别为0.49、0.44、0.40、0.27。湖北省粮食生产与耕地资源的基尼系数均大于0.5,且有增加趋势,鄂西山地和江汉平原不平衡指数为正,鄂中岗地与鄂东丘陵不平衡指数为负。近30年各地貌区粮食产量变化的耕地数量效应与结构效应为负,耕地集约效应和质量效应为正,其中耕地种植结构变化对鄂东丘陵粮食生产的减量作用达到309.70万t,而复种指数变化对鄂中岗地粮食生产的增量作用达到300.46万t。【结论】近30年湖北省各地貌区耕地质量效应和耕地结构效应的增量作用正在减弱,数量效应的减量作用在增强,湖北省面临优质耕地减少的种植风险和粮食种植结构调整带来的产量风险。湖北省粮食生产与耕地资源长期处于不匹配状态,且表现出明显的区域地理特征。粮食生产空间布局和种植结构调整应充分考虑不同地貌区自然地理�
【Objective】The matching relationship between grain production pattern and regional arable land resources in different geomorphologic zones was studied to provide decision-making basis for grain production distribution and arable land resources protection.【Method】Concentration index, coefficient of variation method, spatial center of gravity model, matching degree and LMDI model were used.【Result】From 1990 to 2020, the proportion of grain output of Western Mountains, Central Heights, Eastern Hills and Jianghan Plain in the total grain output of Hubei Province was gradually adjusted to 11.2%, 30.6%, 26.2% and 32.0%. There are significant differences in the concentration and changing trends of grain crop production with different geomorphological division in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2020. Grain production in Hubei Province has a clear tendency to concentrate in Central Heights, mainly wheat and corn, while soybean production is concentrated in Jianghan Plain. In the past 30 years, the barycenter of grains planting and the barycenter of grains production in Hubei Province have both shifted to the northwest, with a distance of 5.37 km and 14.63 km, respectively. However, the barycenter of grain production in the Central Heights moves to the northeast, while the Jianghan Plain and the Western Mountains move to the southwest. The average spatial distances between grains production and the barycenter of arable land resources in the Western Mountains, the Central Heights, the Eastern Hills and the Jianghan Plain of Hubei Province are 6.20 km, 3.35 km, 10.57 km and 6.82 km. And their average index of consistency of change are 0.49, 0.44, 0.40 and 0.27, respectively. The Gini coefficients of grain production and arable land resources in Hubei Province are all greater than 0.5 and tend to increase, while the imbalance indices of Western Mountains and Jianghan Plain are positive, and the imbalance indices of Central Heights and Eastern Hills are negative. The quantity effect and intensive effect of arable land
作者
张俊峰
丁建成
翁煜炜
张雄
ZHANG JunFeng;DING JianCheng;WENG YuWei;ZHANG Xiong(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073;School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073;College of Public Administration,South-Central University for Nationalities,Wuhan 430074)
出处
《中国农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第9期1748-1765,共18页
Scientia Agricultura Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(71603288)
国家社科基金项目(21FGLB057)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJC790160)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2722024BY017)。
关键词
粮食生产
时空变化
地貌分区
耕地资源
匹配性
湖北省
grain production
spatial-temporal variation
geomorphological divisions
arable land resources
matching
Hubei Province
