摘要
基于脆弱性理论,构建了我国粮食生产与消费能力脆弱性评价指标体系,采用全局主成分、重心—标准差椭圆模型和耦合协调度模型,分析了2000—2016年我国省域粮食生产与消费能力脆弱性的时空演变及其耦合协调性的变化状况,结果表明:①粮食生产能力脆弱性呈现出由东南向西北和东北逐步降低,较高脆弱区地域范围明显缩小的时空演变特征,其重心整体向南移动了95.70 km。②粮食消费能力脆弱性呈现由西向东降低的趋势,高脆弱区和较高脆弱区范围大幅缩小的时空演变特征,其重心整体向西北移动了131.55 km。③粮食生产与消费能力脆弱性的耦合协调性呈现由东北部向南,东部沿海省区向中西部,藏、新两地向内陆腹地省区逐步升高的分布格局,两者的耦合协调度由2000年的0.695变化到2016年的0.768。④粮食生产能力能够完全保障粮食消费的地区(类型Ⅰ)绝大部分位于我国藏、新、蒙等边疆地区,以及西北、西南、东北等地,其耦合协调性低的短板在于粮食消费能力过低;基本能够保障粮食消费的地区(类型Ⅱ)大部分属于粮食主产区,其粮食生产与消费能力匹配较好;无法保障粮食消费的地区(类型Ⅲ)绝大部分位于东部沿海的粮食主销区,其耦合协调度低的原因在于粮食生产能力过低而消费能力过高。
Based on the vulnerability theory,this paper constructed the evaluation index systems of vulnerability of food production ability(VFPA)and vulnerability of food consumption ability(VFCA)in China.With the methods of generalized principal component analysis,gravity center-standard deviational ellipse and coupling coordination model,the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and coupling coordination situation of VFPA and VFCA were analyzed from 2000 to 2016,the results showed that:(1)VFPA gradually decreased from southeast to northwest and northeast,the spectrums with relative high vulnerability was significantly reduced,and the gravity center of VFPA moved 95.70km toward the south;(2)VFCA decreased from west to east,the high and relatively high vulnerable areas were greatly reduced,and the gravity center of VFCA shifted 131.55km to the northwest;(3)The distribution pattern of the coupling coordination of VFPA and VFCA gradually increased from northeast to south,from eastern coastal provinces to the central and western regions and from Tibetan and Xinjiang to the inland hinterland.The coupling coordination degree of VFPA and VFCA raised from 0.695 in 2000 to 0.768 in 2016;(4)The regions with full grain production ability to guarantee food consumption(Type I)were mostly located in Tibet,Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia,as well as in the northwest,southwest and northeast,the low coupling coordination were mainly owning to their too low food consumption ability;The regions with basically ability to guarantee food consumption(Type II)were mostly located in the main grain producing areas,the grain production and consumption ability matched quite well in those areas,which made them having a relative high coupling coordination degree;The regions with no ability to guaranteed food consumption(Type III)were mostly located in main grain-consuming areas in the developed eastern coastal provinces,the low coupling coordination was owning to their too low food production ability and too high food consumption ability.
作者
姚成胜
殷伟
黄琳
崔会芳
YAO Chengsheng;YINWei;HUANG Lin;CUI Huifang(Center of Central China Economic Development Research,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi,China;School of Tourism,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi,China;Foreign Languages College,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,Jiangxi,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第12期147-156,共10页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41761110)
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(17YJA790084)
关键词
粮食安全
粮食生产能力
粮食消费能力
脆弱性
耦合协调性
生态环境约束
土地播种面积
food security
food production ability
food consumption ability
vulnerability
coupling coordination
restriction of ecological environment
sowing area of land
