摘要
使用2016—2021年陕西省降水数据以及2018—2021年中国区域融合降水分析系统(CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System,CMPAS-V2.1)的二源和三源融合降水分析实时产品,分析陕西省近6 a短时强降水的时空特征,并通过统计检验方法评估融合降水产品的准确性,为融合产品在短时强降水过程中的订正提供参考依据。结果表明:(1)陕西省短时强降水的最高频次出现在19:00(北京时,下同),强降水主要集中在16:00至次日02:00,且更多发生在6—8月。强降水极值在17:00至次日01:00和04:00—07:00相对较大。陕南地区短时强降水频次明显高于关中和陕北地区;陕北北部、关中东部以及陕南中东部的强降水极值相对更大。(2)两类降水产品的降水量均偏小。三源产品的平均绝对误差在陕北南部、关中大部和陕南南部地区较小,而其余地区二源产品较优。平均绝对误差随着降水量的增加而增大,对于20~50 mm的短时强降水,三源产品更为可靠,而对于50 mm以上的强降水,二源产品表现更佳。(3)两类产品平均绝对误差在13:00—19:00、23:00至次日01:00和04:00—06:00较大,在08:00—12:00、20:00—22:00和02:00—03:00较小,5—8月三源产品表现优于二源产品,而在9—10月二源产品较为可信。(4)降水量阈值降低时融合产品的准确性增加。三源融合产品在性能上优于二源;9—10月两类融合产品的降水量均优于5—8月。
Based on the precipitation data from Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2021 and real-time products of two-source and threesource precipitation from the CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System(CMPAS-V2.1)during 2018-2021,the spatial and tem⁃poral characteristics of short-term heavy rainfall in Shaanxi Province over the past 6 years were analyzed.Furthermore,statistical tests were applied to evaluate the accuracy of the multi-source precipitation products,with the aim of providing reference for correction of multi-source precipitation products in short-term heavy rainfall processes.The results are as follows:(1)In Shaanxi Province,the shortterm heavy rainfall frequency peak was at 19:00 pm,with heavy precipitation primarily occurring from 16:00 to 02:00 in a day and pre⁃dominantly in the months of June to August.The diurnal extreme value of heavy rainfall shows relatively higher from 17:00 to 01:00 and from 04:00 to 07:00 in the morning.Short-term heavy rainfall is more frequent in southern Shaanxi compared to Guanzhong and north⁃ern Shaanxi.The regions with relatively larger extreme values include northern Shaanxi,eastern Guanzhong,and central-eastern of southern Shaanxi.(2)Both two types of precipitation products tend to underestimate precipitation compared to observed values.The mean absolute errors of the three-source product exhibit smaller in southern of northern Shaanxi,most part of Guanzhong and southern of southern Shaanxi,while the two-source product performs relatively better in other region.The mean absolute error increases with pre⁃cipitation increase.For heavy precipitation ranging from 20 to 50 mm,three-source product is recommended,while two-source product is more suitable for heavy precipitation above 50 mm.(3)The diurnal variations in mean absolute errors for both two types of multisource products are relatively larger from 13:00 to 19:00,23:00 to 01:00 and from 04:00 to 06:00,and relatively smaller from 08:00 to 12:00,20:00 to 22:00 and from 02:00 to 03:00.The three-source product outp
作者
刘菊菊
赵强
井宇
张蔚然
戴昌明
LIU Juju;ZHAO Qiang;JING Yu;ZHANG Weiran;DAI Changming(Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory,Xi'an 710014,China;Key Laboratory of Ecological and Environmental Meteorology of Qinling and Loess Plateau,Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau,Xi'an 710016,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2024年第2期263-273,共11页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-QN-0367)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z009)
秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室面上项目(2022G-15)共同资助。
关键词
融合产品
短时强降水
评估
陕西
multi-source precipitation product
short-term heavy rainfall
assessment
Shaanxi
