摘要
利用地面降水观测资料、国家气象信息中心研发的4种降水融合产品(FAST_(5) km、FRT_(5) km、RT_(1) km、NRT_(1) km),采用误差分析、偏差分析、正确率、TS评分等方法,对其在四川盆地西部的适用性进行分析,并选取2020年8月10—11日一次极端暴雨过程进行详细评估。结果表明:融合格点降水资料与实况较为一致,且1 km产品更接近实况。极端暴雨过程中,对于过程累积雨量,4种融合格点降水资料均能很好地反映此次降水过程,降水落区、走向和雨带形态均与实况较为一致。1 km产品的强度和落区都更接近实况,其中以NRT_1 km与实况的匹配度最高,偏差更小。融合格点降水资料存在24 h雨量极大值比实况偏小的情况,1 km产品的极值较5 km产品有很大提升。融合格点降水资料的小时最大降水量低于实况,存在一定的偏差量。强降水时段,融合降水资料与实况偏差不大,能够反映降水的大值区。总体上看,三源融合实况格点产品效果优于二源融合实况格点产品,其中融合了CMORPH和FY 2种卫星资料的近实时三源融合实况格点产品最优。
Based on the surface precipitation observation data and the four merged precipitation products(FAST_5 km,FRT_5 km,RT_1 km,NRT_1 km)developed by National Meteorological Information Center,analysis was performed for the applicability of the merged precipitation products in western Sichuan Basin by using error analysis method,variance analysis method,accuracy method and TS score method.Detailed evaluation was performed for an extreme rainstorm process occurred during 10th Aug to 11th Aug in 2020.The results show merged precipitation products was nearly consistent with the observation data,and the 1 km product was closer to the observation data.For the accumulative precipitation of the extreme rainstorm process,the four merged products could reflect the precipitation process well,and the precipitation area,trend and rain band pattern were consistent with the observed data.The precipitation intensity and area from 1 km product was closer to the observed data,and the NRT_1 km had the highest matching degree and smallest deviation compared to the observation data.The 24 h rainfall maximum value of merged precipitation products was smaller than observation data,and the maximum value from 1 km product had a big improvement compared to 5 km product.The hourly maximum precipitation of merged precipitation products was smaller than observation data,and there was a certain amount of deviation.During the strong precipitation period,merged precipitation products were nearly consistent with the observation data,and could reflect the greater value area of the precipitation process.On the whole,the effect of three-source merged grid products were better than that of two-source merged grid products,and the near real-time three-source merged grid product integrating CMORPH and FY satellite data was the best.
作者
宋雯雯
龙柯吉
黄晓龙
王彬雁
SONG Wenwen;LONG Keji;HUANG Xiaolong;WANG Binyan(Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought/Flood Disaster in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Meteorological Service Center,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observation and Data Center,Chengdu 610072,China)
出处
《中低纬山地气象》
2022年第3期9-15,共7页
Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology
基金
中国气象局大气探测重点开放实验室开放课题(2021KLAS02M):基于卫星遥感的川渝城市化进程同极端降水的相关性研究
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z07):中国1 km网格实况分析产品研发与业务应用
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室重点专项(SCQXKJZD2020002):基于网格实况的模式降水偏差定量检验及订正试验
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室面上项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202117、SCQXKJYJXMS202118):基于智能网格降水的流域面雨量集成预报技术研究、西南山区铁路敏感路段短时强降水预警指标研究。
关键词
四川盆地
极端暴雨
降水融合产品
评估
Sichuan Basin
rare severe rainstorm
merged precipitation products
evaluation
