摘要
能源是国民经济和社会发展的重要基础,其生产和贸易对于全球经济具有全局性的重要影响。本文综合石油、天然气和煤炭三大主要国际能源贸易产品,构建国际能源贸易网络,从静态和动态两个方面对国际能源贸易网络的韧性进行测度分析,并对3类能源产品贸易网络中全球十大经济体的抗冲击性进行评价。研究结果表明:从静态韧性角度看,国际天然气贸易网络的综合韧性较低,国际石油贸易网络的综合韧性中等,国际煤炭贸易网络综合韧性水平最高,这说明国际煤炭贸易网络在受到冲击时的破坏影响较小,网络结构稳定性较好。天然气国际贸易网络主要依赖少数核心国家支撑,网络韧性水平较低。从动态韧性角度看,中国在全球能源贸易网络中的中转能力与扩散能力都表现出较好水平,在能源贸易网络节点抗干扰性表现分层中几乎都处于第一或第二层。最后,根据国际能源贸易网络的韧性特征,提出加大中国、中亚和西亚间的油气管道建设以及建立中国-中亚-西亚能源经济圈的对策建议,以进一步保障中国能源供应链安全。
Energy security has always been a hotspot of global concern,and international trade in energy is huge,with an extremely complex trade network that has a global and long-term impact on the global economy.This paper synthesizes the three major international energy trade products of oil,natural gas and coal,constructs the international energy trade network,and measures and analyzes the resilience of the international energy trade network from both static and dynamic aspects.The research results show that:from the perspective of static resilience,the resilience level of the international coal trade network is higher than that of both oil and natural gas,which indicates that the international coal trade network has less destructive impact when it is hit,and the network structure is better stabilized.The international trade network for natural gas is mainly dependent on a small number of core countries for support and has a low level of network resilience.From the perspective of dynamic resilience,China's transit capacity and diffusion capacity in the global energy trade network have shown a better level,and are almost always in the first or second tier in the performance stratification of energy trade network node resistance to interference.According to the resilience characteristics of the international energy trade network,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions of diversifying of energy import sources,enhancing the bargaining power in the international energy trade,and establishing the China-Central Asia-West Asia Energy Economic Circle to further safeguard China's energy security.
作者
焦兵
Jiao Bing(School of Management,Xi'an University of Finance and Economics,Xi'an 710100,China)
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2024年第5期131-140,共10页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“价值链双重嵌入框架下中国-中亚-西亚能源经济圈的构建与协同机制研究”(项目编号:20BJL068)。
