摘要
文章利用复杂网络分析方法对"一带一路"沿线国家天然气贸易网络结构特征、微观模式及其影响因素进行分析。研究表明:天然气贸易网络密度及互惠性较低,网络节点间贸易联系微弱;俄罗斯、卡塔尔、新加坡、中国属于天然气贸易网络的中心国,对整体网络结构及其他节点国家存在较强的控制力及影响力;天然气贸易分布格局符合"马太效应",但加权网络结构的异质化程度在降低,贸易大国与贸易小国的差距在减小;不均衡的、缺乏互惠性的贸易模式所占比例较高,中国、印度属于进口发起国和核心国,卡塔尔是进口的重要来源国,新加坡是贸易枢纽中心;人均二氧化碳排放差异、陆地相邻与否对天然气贸易存在显著的正向影响;物流绩效指数相近的国家倾向于建立紧密的贸易联系,选择较大的贸易量;城镇化水平差异、人口数量差异及语言相同与否在无权网络对天然气贸易产生正向影响,而在加权网络中为负向影响。
This article used the method of complex network to analyze the network structure characteristics,microscopic models and influencing factors of the countries along ' the Belt and Road'. The results show that,the density and reciprocity value of the trade network are low,and the trade links between network nodes are weak. Russia,Qatar,Singapore and China are the central countries of the gas trade network,which have a control force and strong influence on the overall network structure and the state of other nodes. The distribution pattern of gas trade conforms to the ' Matthew effect',but the degree of heterogeneity of the weighted network structure is reducing,so as to the gap between the big and small countries. China and India belong to the original importing countries and core countries. Qatar is an important source of imports. Singapore is a trade hub. The proportion of per-capita emissions of CO2 gap and land adjacence have significant positive impacts on the gas trade. Countries with similar LPI tend to establish trade links and select a larger volume of trade. The gap of urbanization level,the gap of population quantity and common language or not,tend to have positive effect in the unweighted network,yet a negative effect in the weighted network.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期109-122,共14页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国新疆与中亚国家的能源与贸易互联互通建设战略研究"(项目编号:13AZD083)
中国博士后科学基金第59批面上资助一等资助(项目编号:2016M590986)
新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目"丝绸之路经济带沿线国家天然气贸易网络演化及影响因素研究"(项目编号:XJUFE2016K013)
