摘要
生态盈亏与碳排放强度是衡量生态环境质量与经济发展水平的重要指标,分析两者时空关联并预测未来演进方向对提升区域生态环境质量健康水平具有指导作用。以淮海经济区为研究对象,以2000年、2010年和2020年3期土地利用数据为基础,运用PLUS模型、双变量自相关、耦合协调度及面板计量回归模型等方法,预测并分析淮海经济区2000—2036年3种情景下碳排放强度、生态盈亏的演化特征及时空关联。结果表明:(1)常规发展情景下,淮海经济区生态性呈下降趋势,强耕地保护情景下生态性微有下降,强生态保护情景下,生态性有所上升,自然要素是主导。(2)常规发展情景下,淮海经济区碳排放量逐渐加大,强耕地保护及强生态保护情景下,则呈下降趋势;三种状态下,碳排放强度均呈下降趋势,时间轴2010—2020年降幅较大,空间序河流水系地区碳排放强度降幅较大。(3)淮海经济区碳排放强度与生态盈亏呈负相关关系,低低和低高聚类主要分布在城镇建设用地周边,高低和高高聚类分布在人类干扰较少的自然区域;高高聚类主要位于河流水系交汇区,表明水域有效降低碳排放强度的功能。(4)淮海经济区的碳排放强度与生态盈亏之间的耦合协调度呈东西高、中部低的态势,高耦合协调度主要分布于低高聚类,即自然地区域,低耦合协调度主要分布于西部平原区;科学技术、经济发展水平及二产占比对耦合协调度呈正影响,城镇化率、道路密度呈负影响。研究认为,淮海经济区当前的土地利用方式,不利于区域环境质量的改善,建议进一步强化建设用地管控、大力推进高标准农田建设和水域保护,以耕地质量提升和水域保护加强提升粮食主产区环境质量健康水平。
Ecological profit and loss and carbon emission intensity are important indicators to measure ecological environment quality and economic development level.Analyzing the temporal and spatial correlations between the two and predicting the future evolution have a guiding effect on improving the health level of regional eco-environmental quality.This paper takes the Huaihai Economic Zone as the research object.The patch-generating land use simulation model,bivariate autocorrelation,coupling coordination and panel econometric regression model are used to predict and analyze the spatial and temporal correlations of carbon emission intensity and ecological profit and loss under three scenarios from 2000 to 2036,based on the land use data of 2000,2010 and 2020.The results show that:(1)under the conventional development scenario and cultivated land protection,the ecology of Huaihai Economic Zone shows a downward trend.The ecological environment rises only in the ecological protection scenario,where the natural element is the dominant factor.(2)Under the conventional development scenario,the carbon emission in Huaihai Economic Zone gradually increases,while the cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario show a decreasing trend.Under all three states,the carbon emission intensity shows a decreasing trend,with a larger decrease in 2010—2020 and a larger decrease in the river water system area.(3)The carbon emission intensity and ecological profit and loss in Huaihai Economic Zone are negatively correlated.The low-low and low-high clusters are mainly distributed around urban construction land,high-low clusters are distributed in natural areas with less human interference.The high-high clusters are mainly located in the river area,which indicates the function of watershed to effectively reduce carbon emission intensity.(4)The coupling coordination between carbon emission intensity and ecological profit and loss in the Huaihai Economic Zone is high in the east and west,low in the middle area.The h
作者
袁建勋
方斌
阚红云
何莎莎
YUAN Jianxun;FANG Bin;KAN Hongyun;HE Shasha(College of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Research Center for New Urbanization and Land Issues,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Geographic Information Resources Development and Utilization,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Public Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期2199-2215,共17页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42071229,41671174)
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目(164320H116)
江苏省自然资源科技项目(2023021)。
关键词
土地利用
多情景
碳排放强度
生态盈亏
淮海经济区
land use
multiple scenarios
carbon emission intensity
ecological profit and loss
Huaihai Economic zone
