摘要
目的探究原发性肝癌合并腹水患者发生SBP的影响因素并建立预测模型。方法选取于2012年1月至2021年12月期间在昆明市第三人民医院首次住院的292例原发性肝癌合并腹水患者为研究对象,收集这些研究对象的一般资料、病因指标、血清学指标及并发症发生情况,然后根据是否发生SBP分为感染组(n=114)和对照组(n=178),采用单因素和多因素回归分析原发性肝癌合并腹水患者发生SBP的影响因素,最后构建受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线来更直观地表示这些变量的单独和联合预测价值。结果292例肝癌腹水患者中有男性235例(80.48%),女性57例(19.52%),其中有114例合并SBP为感染组,178例未合并SBP为对照组。单因素分析结果显示感染组的WBC、中性粒细胞、凝血酶原时间、总胆红素、白蛋白、CD3、CD4、CD8、CD4/CD8比值、CD19、降钙素原、血清淀粉样蛋白A、超敏C反应蛋白、钠、氯、饮酒、休克、肝肾综合征、肝性脑病、大量腹水指标与对照组比较,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素分析结果显示CD8、CD4/CD8比值为肝癌腹水患者发生SBP的保护因素,CD19、降钙素原、血清淀粉样蛋白A、大量腹水为肝癌腹水患者发生SBP的危险因素。构建ROC曲线后显示血清淀粉样蛋白A、CD8、CD4/CD8比值、CD19、降钙素原、大量腹水的曲线下面积(AUC)依次为0.724、0.637、0.653、0.820、0.705、0.686。结论降钙素原、CD8、CD4/CD8比值、CD19、大量腹水、血清淀粉样蛋白A为肝癌腹水患者发生SBP的影响因素,且联合预测价值较高,对于SBP的预测具有一定的准确度。
Objective To explore the influencing factors of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in patients with primary liver cancer complicated with ascites and establish a prediction model.Methods A total of 292 patients with primary liver cancer complicated with ascites who were hospitalized for the first time in the Third People’s Hospital of Kunming from January 2012 to December 2021 were selected as the study objects.General data,etiological indicators,serological indicators and complications of these subjects were collected.Then they were divided into the infection group(n=114)and the control group(n=178)according to whether spontaneous bacterial peritonitis(SBP)was complicated.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of SBP in patients with primary liver cancer complicated with ascites.Finally,ROC curves were constructed to more intuitively represent the individual and combined predictive value of these targets.Results Among 292 hepatocellular carcinoma patients with ascites,there were 235 males(80.48%)and 57 females(19.52%),among which 114 patients with SBP were in the infection group and 178 patients without SBP were in the control group.The results of univariate analysis showed that compared with the control group,the levels of WBC,neutrophils,prothrombin time,total bilirubin,albumin,CD3,CD4,CD8,CD4/CD8 ratio,CD19 procalcitonin,serum amyloid A,hypersensitive C-reactive protein,sodium,chlorine,alcohol consumption,shock,hepatorenal syndrome,hepatic encephalopathy,massive ascites in the infection group had statistically significant difference(P<0.05).Multi-factor analysis revealed that CD8,CD4/CD8 ratio were protective factors for SBP in patients with liver cancer ascites,CD19,procalcitonin,serum amyloid A,and massive ascites were risk factors for SBP in patients with ascites.ROC curve construction showed that serum amyloid A,CD8,CD4/CD8 ratio,CD19,procalcitonin,massive ascites area under curve(AUC)of massive ascites were 0.724,0.637,0.653,0.820,0.705,0.686,respect
作者
魏红艳
王远珍
常丽仙
木唤
刘春云
刘立
WEI Hongyan;WANG Yuanzhen;CHANG Lixian;MU Huan;LIU Chunyun;LIU Li(Dept.of Hepatology and Immunology,Third People’s Hospital of Kunming,Yunnan Clinical Center for Infectious Diseases,Kunming Yunnan 650041;School of Public Health,Dali University,Dali Yunnan 671000,China)
出处
《昆明医科大学学报》
CAS
2024年第3期133-140,共8页
Journal of Kunming Medical University
基金
佑安专科联盟科研专项基金资助项目(LM202014)
昆明市卫生健康委员会科研基金资助项目(2023-03-08-001)。
关键词
肝癌
腹水
自发性细菌性腹膜炎
风险预测
Liver cancer
Ascites
Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis
Risk prediction
