摘要
依据单一GDP分解方法测度双循环存在多种缺陷。本文从增加值流转视角比较分析三种GDP分解方法下的直接指标,构建一种以间接指标测度双循环的新框架,并将其应用于中国经济双循环格局演化分析和国际比较分析。研究表明,1995—2018年,中国制造业国内循环比例呈逐渐下降又大幅回调过程,本质上是对中国双循环格局“大内循环倾向”特征的回归,并不代表“国内大循环为主”经济发展格局已经形成;不同经济体双循环格局具有明显异质性,即具有“大内循环倾向”或“小内循环倾向”。这种异质性相对稳定,经济体双循环格局的演变进程主要表现为国内外市场关联和上下游产业关联两种结构力量作用下,在双循环类型空间的局部调整。从构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局出发,反映国内国际循环比例的直接指标不是合适的政策目标,中国应根据不同行业特点,根据间接指标所反映的双循环格局类型和结构特征,聚焦产业链整合和治理挖掘增长潜力。
This paper discusses the limitations of using direct indicators to measure the dual circulation of the economy from a single decomposition method.By comparing direct indicator from different decomposition methods,this paper proposes four modified indirect indicators to analyse China's dual circulation economic structure.The main findings of the paper are:(1)Comparing to narrow direct indicators are more stable and accurate broad direct indicators have a significant overestimation issue.However,both methods have inherent flaws when comparing between industries and countries.(2)Based on the direct indicator,it is found that the proportion of internal circulation in some manufacturing industries in China has significantly decreased.This does not necessarily indicate a shift to a domesticdominated circulation economic development pattern;it is a regression to "big domestic circulation for big economy".(3)Clustering analysis based on indirect indicators suggests that China's overall dual circulation pattern falls into the "big domestic circulation for big economy" category,characterized by both industrial and market advantages.However,at the industry level,some sectors do not possess both advantages and may even exhibit relative disadvantages.Considering the need to develop a domestic-dominated economic pattern that promotes both domestic and international circulation,China should tailor its strategies to the specific characteristics of different industries and concentrate on integrating and governing industrial chains to unlock growth potential.
作者
李晓
刘宝琦
Li Xiao;Liu Baoqi(School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
北大核心
2024年第1期3-19,共17页
Nankai Economic Studies
关键词
双循环
全球价值链
增加值
投入产出模型
Dual Circulation
Global Value Chains
Value Added
Input-Output Model
