摘要
基于预测的城市人群时空变化特征对城市空间资源进行配置是城市规划的重要工作,城市人口在不同的空间中快速变迁移动,具有非均衡分布的特点。这种人群非均衡分布的时空变化具有一定的规律性,即稳态分布。本文基于LBS数据以及建成环境的多源异构大数据,选取4大类36小类指标,采用智能决策树模型构建城市人群稳态分布的预测模型。对于泉州的实证发现,预测模型的准确度达84.32%,具有较高的准确性和依据,其内在理论依据是城市人群在空间上的规律性时空活动,能够为未来的城市规划提供决策参考。
An important task of urban planning is to allocate urban space resources based on the predicted spatiotemporal variation characteristics of urban population.Urban population moves rapidly in different spaces and has the characteristics of nonequilibrium distribution.The spatial and temporal changes of the uneven distribution of the population have a certain regularity,that is,the steady-state distribution.Based on LBS data and multi-source big data of the built environment,this paper selects4 categories and 36 sub-categories,and adopts the intelligent decision tree model to construct a prediction model for the steady-state distribution of urban population.As for the empirical findings in Quanzhou,the accuracy of the prediction model is 84.32%,which provides a solid basis for its reliability.Its internal theoretical basis is the steadystate spatiotemporal activity law of urban population in space,which can support decision-making for future urban planning.
作者
杨俊宴
张钟虎
史宜
顾杰
郑坤仪
YANG Junyan;ZHANG Zhonghu;SHI Yi;GU Jie;ZHENG Kunyi
出处
《城市规划》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期45-56,共12页
City Planning Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“城市中心区‘高密-高频’人流动态模拟与空间设计优化研究”(52378048)
中国高等教育学会专项重大课题“大数据时代的创新型人才培养模式及评价机制”(21SZZ02)共同资助。
关键词
人群时空分布
多情景预测
规划评估
随机森林决策树
spatial and temporal distribution of population
multi-scenario prediction
planning evaluation
random decisionforests
