摘要
当前,全球经济中长期发展面临的主要问题是公共风险的衍化:由经济增长速度减缓向预期转弱、社会供需形成负反馈机制衍化;由就业岗位不足向工资风险溢价上升衍化;由刺激政策力度不够向结构性改革防范化解风险效能不足衍化。中国也不例外。所有的公共风险最终会转化为个人、企业和政府的成本,影响企业资产负债表、现金流量表,尤其会导致风险折现率提高、要素成本上升、经济潜在增长率下降。因此,必须高度重视公共风险治理,避免公共风险水平上升可能引发的经济长期衰退。基于对公共风险持续扩散的内在根源的剖析,本文提出当前应妥善处理六大关系,即发展与安全,数字经济与实体经济,农民市民化与乡村振兴,多元目标与政策协同,经济调控与经济治理,地方政府能力与事权、财权、财力匹配,从而实现对公共风险的有效对冲。
Summary:Human society has entered a risk society,and many unpredictable risk costs can affect the behavior of economic entities more than predictable factor costs.The traditional economic operation analysis generally assumes that the public risk is zero,that is,under the condition of macro certainty,it is no longer applicable to the current situation.Under the background of increasing risks and uncertainties,by constructing a“risk⁃cost”analysis framework,it is helpful to objectively and comprehensively understand the current economic situation and main contradictions,analyze the internal roots of public risk diffusion,and then formulate more scientific and effective countermeasures.The problems faced by China’s medium and long⁃term economic development,such as economic downturn,insufficient jobs,insufficient policy stimulus and huge changes in the external environment,are the evolution of public risks:from economic downturn to expected weakness,social supply and demand form negative feedback mechanism evolution;from the lack of jobs to the rise of wage risk premium;from insufficient stimulus policy to the effectiveness of epidemic risk hedging policy;from the great change of the external environment to the lack of strength in“doing your own thing”.All public risks will eventually be transformed into the costs of government,residents and enterprises,deteriorating their balance sheets and cash flow statements,especially leading to an increase in the risk discount rate,an increase in total factor costs,and a decline in the potential economic growth rate.At present,China’s existence upholds the fatalistic growth concept,the government and the market have failed to form a joint force,the marginal improvement of the“peasant society”has peaked,the overall goal of the modernization of national governance is not focused enough,the evaluation is not enough,and the central institutionalism and local behaviorism have not been effectively integrated.These problems influence and catalyze each other,which ul
作者
刘尚希
LIU Shang-xi(Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences,Beijing 100142,China)
出处
《财经问题研究》
北大核心
2024年第2期28-37,共10页
Research On Financial and Economic Issues
关键词
公共风险
经济中长期发展
风险—成本
public risk
medium and long-term economic development
risk-cost
