摘要
近年来,泰国政治极化日趋明显。2020—2021年爆发的新生代大规模街头运动,公开提出“王室改革”的政治诉求,从而引起保守阵营尤其是极右翼的强烈不满。2023年泰国大选后,2019年崛起的极左翼政治势力开始取代中左势力的革新阵营主导地位,从而使政治极化进一步加剧。从国家发展道路转型视角来看,泰国政治极化根源在于代际分歧引发的经济利益结构、政治权力结构、社会文化结构等多重失衡困境,各派力量在全面重塑国家运作体系问题上的矛盾持续激化。从19世纪末到20世纪末的100多年里,泰国曾先后经历三次重要的国家发展道路转型,并促成了从传统到现代的转型进程,由此跻身中等收入国家,并于20世纪90年代成为“亚洲四小虎”之一。但是,冷战后泰国的第四次国家发展道路转型却迄今未能取得预期成效。由于国家发展道路转型的内生动力不足,泰国短期内很难摆脱政治极化风险。
In recent years,Thailand has become increasingly politically polarised.The mass street movement of the new generation that erupted in 2020-2021,which openly put forward the political demand for "royal reforms",has aroused strong resentment from the conservative camp,especially from the far-right.After the Thai general election in 2023,the far-left political forces raised in 2019 began to replace the center-left forces' dominant position in the reformist camp,further increasing political polarization.From the perspective of the transformation of the country's development path,Thailand's political polarization is rooted in the multiple imbalances of "Economic Interest Structure-Political Power Structure-Social & Cultural Structure" caused by intergenerational differences.Due to the lack of endogenous driving force for the transformation of Thailand's national development path,it is difficult to get rid of the risk of political polarization in the short term;In the medium and long term,the construction of a community with a shared future between China and Thailand may become an important external driving force for Thailand to resolve intergenerational differences.
作者
周方冶
ZHOU Fangye(National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China)
出处
《东南亚研究》
2023年第6期1-29,154,共30页
Southeast Asian Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项2023年度重大招标项目“东南亚现代国家发展历史”(23VLS026)。
关键词
泰国
政治极化
国家发展道路转型
代际分歧
极左翼
Thailand
Political Polarization
Transformation of National Development Path
Intergenerational Differences
Far-Left(Politics)
