摘要
在新发展格局背景下,基于2010—2021年30个省份构建国内和国际循环指标体系,采用熵权-Topsis法测度国内和国际循环发展水平指数,在此基础上,根据面板双向固定效应模型分析国内循环、国际循环、双循环以及双循环的平方项对经济增长的影响,并进行异质性和稳健性检验。经过分析得出结论,国内循环和国际循环指数呈现上升趋势,且发展水平较好的主要集中在经济发达地区,东部地区发展水平高于中部和西部地区;国内循环和双循环对经济增长有显著的正向影响,而双循环的平方项呈现负向影响。据此提出,加强国内外循环,优化产业结构,增加多样化进出口;实施区域差异化政策,重点发展欠发达地区;提升南北合作,实现资源优势互补;减少贸易壁垒,增加市场开放度;提升竞争力,开拓国际市场。
In the context of the new development pattern,a domestic and international circular indicator system was constructed based on 30 provinces from 2010 to 2021.The entropy weight Topsis method was used to measure the domestic and international circular development level index.Based on this,a panel bidirectional fixed effects model was used to analyze the impact of the square terms of domestic circulation,international circulation,dual circulation,and dual circulation on economic growth,and heterogeneity and robustness tests were conducted.The final analysis concludes that the domestic and international circulation indices are showing an upward trend,and those with good development levels are mainly concentrated in economically developed regions,with the development level in the eastern region being higher than that in the central and western regions.The domestic cycle and dual cycle have a significant positive impact on economic growth,while the square term of the dual cycle shows a negative impact.Based on the conclusion,the following suggestions are proposed:strengthening domestic and international circulation,optimizing industrial structure,and increasing diversified imports and exports;implement regional differentiation policies,with a focus on developing underdeveloped areas;enhance North-South cooperation and achieve complementary resource advantages;reduce trade barriers and increase market openness;enhance their competitiveness and explore international markets.
作者
金官丽
吴洋
JIN Guanli;WU Yang(School of Statistics and Data Science,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2024年第2期58-63,共6页
Science Technology and Industry
关键词
新发展格局
国内国际循环测度
熵权-Topsis法
经济增长
双向固定效应模型
new development pattern
measurement of domestic and international circulation
entropy weight topsis method
economic growth
bidirectional fixed effect model
