摘要
基于2007—2020年中国宏观统计数据,在测算农业碳排放量和面源污染量的基础上,论文利用灰色GM(1,1)模型和Tapio系数等模型,分析化肥、农药零增长行动的农业减污降碳协同效应及脱钩效应。研究发现:(1)2015年自实施化肥、农药零增长行动以来,我国化肥农药减量效果明显,实现了行动提出的零增长目标,并呈现负增长的趋势。(2)2015—2020年我国化肥、农药实际施用量较模拟值明显减少,化肥施用量总计减少5118.10万吨,农药使用量总计减少210.74万吨。(3)化肥、农药零增长行动具有显著的农业碳减排效应和面源污染减量效应,2015—2020年化肥碳排放量和面源污染量较预测值分别减少4583.77万吨、3326.76万吨,农药碳排放量和面源污染量较预测值分别减少1039.80万吨、105.37万吨。(4)化肥、农药零增长行动实施后,农业经营主体对化肥、农药的依赖不断减少,2016—2020年化肥、农药碳排放量、面源污染量与农业生产的脱钩状态由弱脱钩变为强脱钩。(5)化肥、农药零增长行动实施后,农业减污降碳具有协同效应。
Based on China’s macro statistical data from 2007 to 2020,on the basis of measuring agricultural carbon emissions and non-point source pollution,this paper uses grey GM(1,1)model and Tapio coefficient model to analyze the synergistic effect and decoupling effect of agricultural pollution and carbon reduction of zero growth action of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.The research finds that:(1)Since the implementation of the zero growth action of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in 2015,the reduction effect of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in China has been obvious,achieving the zero growth target proposed by the action,and showing a negative growth trend.(2)From 2015 to 2020,the actual application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in China decreased significantly compared with the simulated value,with a total reduction of 51.1810 million tons of chemical fertilizers and 2.1074 million tons of pesticides.(3)The zero growth action of chemical fertilizers and pesticides has a significant effect on agricultural carbon emission reduction and non-point source pollution reduction.From 2015 to 2020,the carbon emission and nonpoint source pollution of chemical fertilizers decreased by 45.8377 million tons and 33.2676 million tons respectively compared with the predicted value,and the carbon emission and non-point source pollution of pesticides decreased by 10.398 million tons and 1.0537 million tons respectively compared with the predicted value.(4)After the implementation of the zero growth action of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,the dependence of agricultural business entities on chemical fertilizers and pesticides has been continuously reduced.From 2016 to 2020,the decoupling state of carbon emissions,non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizers and pesticides and agricultural production has changed from weak decoupling to strong decoupling.(5)After the implementation of the zero growth action of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction have
作者
黄晓慧
杨飞
HUANG Xiaohui;YANG Fei(Business School,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2024年第2期117-123,共7页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“数字经济参与对农户低碳生产行为及绩效的影响机制研究”(72203080)
中国博士后科学基金72批面上项目“中国农业减污降碳:协同效应、空间溢出与政策供给”(2022M309634)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目“‘双碳’背景下数字经济驱动江苏农业绿色低碳转型的动力机制及政策研究”(2022SJYB1145)
江苏师范大学教改课题“‘以赛促学、以赛促教’在财会专业教学模式中的探索与实践”(JYKTY202319)。
关键词
零增长行动
化肥农药减量
农业减污降碳
脱钩效应
协同效应
zero growth action
reduction of chemical fertilizers and pesticides
agricultural pollution reduction and carbon reduction
decoupling effect
synergistic effect
