摘要
结合历年人口、教育宏观统计数据,分析了当前我国人口变化特征及其对基础教育学龄人口的影响,并在此基础上预测了2020—2050年我国基础教育学龄人口变化趋势。研究发现:目前学前教育学位需求高峰已过,但2011—2017年的出生堆积使得当前义务教育阶段正迎来学位需求高峰;基础教育学龄人口在2020—2050年主要呈现下降趋势,到2035年后基础教育学龄人口规模只有当前五成左右的水平;当前基础教育学龄人口流动速度加快和规模增大,向城镇地区、东部沿海地区集中趋势明显,2020—2050年基础教育在学(园)人口城镇化水平进一步提升,2030年后学前教育在园人口和小学在学人口的城镇化率均超80%,初中在学人口城镇化率超90%,基础教育进入以城镇教育为主体的时代。基于此,建议建立学位需求的动态监测机制和预警机制,建立人口与教育资源配置的协同机制,在新型城镇化进程中推动教育资源均衡配置。
Based on macro-statistic data on population and education over the years,this study has an analysis of the features of China′s shifting demographics and their impact on the school-aged population in basic education,and then it forecasts the trend of the school-aged population in basic education from 2020 to 2050.The findings are as follows:the peak demand for preschool education enrollment has waned,but the birth increase between 2011 and 2017 has led to a current spike in the need for compulsory education slots.The school-aged cohort in basic education is projected to experience a predominant decline between 2020 and 2050,whose population will be roughly half of its present number by 2035.The study also finds that the migration of school-aged population in basic education is speeding up with an expansion of its number and a marked shift towards urban regions,eastern coastal areas in particular.The urbanization of students in basic education students is expected to see continuous growth from 2020 to 2050,with urbanization rates for preschool and primary school students to exceed 80%after 2030,and junior middle school students likely to surpass 90%,entering an era of urban students taking the lion′s share in basic education.In the light of these shifts,the study suggests to establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for educational demands,and the synergistic mechanisms to align demographics with educational resources,which will ensure an equitable allocation of educational resources in the process of new urbanization.
作者
周宇香
ZHOU Yuxiang(China Youth&Children Research Center,Beijing 100089,China)
出处
《北京教育学院学报》
2024年第1期16-25,共10页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Education
关键词
人口变化
学龄人口
人口预测
基础教育
demographic changes
school-aged population
population forecast
basic education
