摘要
戴维营峰会展示出的美日韩关系“北约化”,是朝鲜半岛及东北亚未来可能生战生乱的根本原因。美国拜登政府诱压日韩两国政府,改变了亚洲以往以发展经济为中心的模式,树立起三国安全密不可分的新地缘观,形成全面合作的准同盟机制,将遗祸东北亚。该机制可概括为:核为媒、情相连、兵同轨、物共享、链整合。美国对其军事力量进行全球布局和结构调整,推动军事要素与战略资源东移,东北亚面临变成主战场和火药桶的风险。2024年将是美日韩三国“惊险”的选举之年,选情扑朔迷离,对三边合作整合将起反作用。日韩两国围绕美国核保护伞的“延伸威慑”,亦存在不小分歧。
The“NATO-ization”of U.S.-Japan-ROK relations demonstrated at the Camp David Summit is the fundamental reason for the possible war and chaos on the Korean Peninsula and in the Northeast Asia.The Biden administration has coerced the governments of Japan and ROK,changed Asia’s economic development-centered model,and established a new geopolitical perspective that“the security of the three countries is inseparable,”making Japan and ROK willing to serve as the vanguard of the United States’“Indo-Pacific”strategy.Under the premise that the quantity and quality of the strategic resources of the United States,Japan and ROK remain unchanged,the decentralized use will be transformed into intensive deployment to achieve a doubling of military power and a multiplier effect,and thus promot the formation of a quasi-alliance mechanism for comprehensive cooperation.The specific content of the quasi-alliance mechanism among the United States,Japan and ROK can be summarized as“nuclear power deterence as the basis with connection of favorable feelings towards each other,sharing military power and resources and joint supply chain.”The United States has made adjustments to the global layout and structure of its military forces,pushing military elements and strategic resources eastward.Northeast Asia faces the risk of becoming a main battlefield and a powder keg,undermining regional military balance and nuclear stability.2024 will be a election year for the United States,Japan and ROK.The election situation is complicated and confusing,which will have a catalytic effect on the integration of U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation and also have considerable differences over the“extended deterrence”of the U.S.nuclear umbrella.
出处
《东北亚学刊》
2024年第1期1-7,143,共8页
Journal of Northeast Asia Studies
关键词
美日韩关系
戴维营峰会
北约化
准同盟机制
东北亚
U.S.-Japan-ROK relations
Camp David Summit
NATO-ization
quasialliance mechanism
Northeast Asia
