摘要
本文基于中国对东南亚国家机电产品的出口贸易额,选取常年位于前五位的代表性国家——新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南,以2002-2021年的面板数据为样本,运用随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型测算中国与东南亚五国机电产品出口的贸易效率及潜力。结果表明:近二十年来,中国对东南亚五国机电产品的出口贸易效率偏低。其中,中国与新加坡、越南两国的贸易潜力较小,属于已饱和型市场,而与菲律宾属于发展型市场,有较大的贸易拓展空间。对此,本文针对进一步提高中国对东南亚五国机电产品的出口贸易规模及贸易效率,提出要立足于产业升级转型,提高出口产品附加值并不断挖掘贸易潜力的对策建议。
Based on the trade volume of China's mechanical and electrical products exported to Southeast Asian countries,this paper selects the top five representative countries-Singapore,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand and Vietnam,and uses the panel data from 2002 to 2021 as a sample.The stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model are used to measure the efficiency and potential of export trade of mechanical and electrical products between China and five Southeast Asian countries.The results show that in the past two decades,the trade efficiency of China's mechanical and electrical products exported to the five Southeast Asian countries is low;among them,China's trade potential with Singapore and Vietnam is small and has become a saturated market,while China and the Philippines belong to the development market and have greater trade expansion space.In this regard,in order to further improve the trade scale and trade efficiency of China's mechanical and electrical products exported to the five countries in Southeast Asia,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the added value of export products and constantly tap the trade potential based on industrial upgrading and transformation.
作者
柴利
蔡劲竑
Cai Li;Cai Jinghong
出处
《新经济》
2023年第12期60-72,共13页
New Economy
关键词
机电产品
出口贸易
随机前沿引力模型
贸易效率
Export trade of mechanical and electrical products
Stochastic frontier gravity model
Trade efficiency and potential
