摘要
目的:分析2021—2022年长沙市气象因素与狂犬病日暴露人数的关联,并探究气象因素对狂犬病暴露影响的滞后作用。方法:收集2021—2022年长沙市每日气象资料和狂犬病日暴露人数,使用R4.2.3软件构建分布滞后非线性模型(Distributed lag nonlinear model,DLNM)进行统计分析。结果:2021—2022年长沙市报告狂犬病暴露人数216405例,日暴露人数中位数292例,夏秋季为高暴露季节。日均气温>10.0℃狂犬病暴露的累积发生风险增加,在30.5℃风险达到最大(RR=1.63,95%CI:1.40~1.89),低温(P_(5),4.0℃)对狂犬病日暴露的发生风险在滞后第4天达到最大,其余温度位置(P_(25)~P_(95))以暴露当天发生风险最大。日均相对湿度在32.0%时,对狂犬病日暴露人数累积发生风险最大,32.0%~86.5%区间累积效应风险逐渐降低。相邻两日温差以极低降温温差-10.0℃风险最大,且以暴露当天效应最强。结论:2021—2022年长沙市气象因素中高温、低湿、极端降温和升温天气都会增加狂犬病暴露风险,提示加强在重点气象到来前做好狂犬病暴露的健康宣教和暴露后处置的就医引导。
Objective:To analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and daily rabies exposure in Changsha from 2021-2022,and explore the lag effect of meteorological factors on daily rabies exposure.Methods:The daily meteorological data and daily rabies exposure in Changsha from 2021 to 2022 were collected,and the distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was constructed with R4.2.3 software.Results:There were 216405 cases of rabies exposure be reported,with a median daily exposure of 292 cases in Changsha from 2021 to 2022.Summer and autumn were the high exposure seasons.The cumulative risk of rabies exposure increases when the daily average temperature is more than 10.0℃,reaching its maximum at 30.5℃(RR=1.63,95%CI:1.40~1.89).The risk of rabies exposure is highest on the 4th day after exposure at low temperatures(P_( 5),4.0℃),and the risk is highest on the day of exposure at other temperature positions(P_(25)~P_(95)).When the daily relative humidity is 32.0%,the cumulative risk of rabies exposure is the highest,and the cumulative effect risk gradually decreases between 32.0%and 86.5%.With the highest risk being the extremely low temperature difference of-10.0℃,and the strongest effect being observed on the day of exposure.Conclusion:High temperature,low humidity,extreme cooling and warming weather will increase the risk of rabies exposure in Changsha from 2021 to 2022,which suggests that health education on rabies exposure and medical guidance on post exposure treatment should be strengthened before the arrival of key weather.
作者
孙坤
陈水连
邱劲松
段陈林
周银柱
Sun Kun(Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control of Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Changsha Hunan 410000)
出处
《黑龙江医药》
CAS
2023年第6期1293-1297,共5页
Heilongjiang Medicine journal
基金
湖南省卫生健康委科研计划项目(编号:202112051105)。
