摘要
在保障能源安全和投资有效性的背景下,本文基于宫泽乘数模型,利用中国非竞争型投入产出表,对“十三五”期间电力建设投资的经济效应进行评估,并对后续年份进行预测。主要结论为:(1)“十三五”期间电力建设以3.87万亿元的投资总额,对产出、增加值、收入和就业等的拉动分别约为13.92万亿元、4.68万亿元、2.19万亿元和4380万人,投资的经济效应可观。这其中,对非直接投资行业的总拉动效应要高于直接投资行业,电力建设投资的溢出效应明显。(2)分电力投资类型来看,风电、太阳能和核电等新能源上游投入的附加值相对更高,导致其每亿元投资拉动的增加值相比传统能源更高。(3)电力建设投资在未来对经济发展依然有重要的积极作用。对2030年的预测发现,电力建设投资拉动的GDP占当年GDP的比重仍达0.7%左右,拉动的就业人数占当年就业人数的比重有望高于1.0%。基于测度结果,本文认为应当在扩大电力建设投资的同时,要稳传统能源投资规模,保障能源安全;优化电力投资结构,促进能源清洁、低碳。
In the context of ensuring energy security and requiring investment effectiveness,Evaluate the economic effects of electricity construction investment during the 13th Five Year Plan period and predict future years based on the Miyazawa multiplier model and China's non-competitive input-output table.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the 13th Five Year Plan period,the total investment in power construction was 3.87 trillion yuan,which drove output,added value,income,and employment to approximately 13.92 trillion yuan,4.68 trillion yuan,2.19 trillion yuan,and 43.8 million people,respectively.The economic effect of investment is considerable.Among them,the overall driving effect on the non direct investment industry is higher than that on the direct investment industry,and the spillover effect of power construction investment is obvious.(2)In terms of investment types in electricity,the added value of upstream investments in new energy sources such as wind power,solar energy,and nuclear power is relatively higher,resulting in a higher value added per billion yuan of investment compared to traditional energy.(3)Power construction investment will continue to have a positive impact on China's macro economy during the period from 2023 to 2030.The proportion of GDP driven by investment in that year is about 0.70%,and the proportion of employment driven to total employment is over 1.00%.Based on the measurement results,this article believes that while expanding investment in power construction,it is necessary to stabilize the scale of traditional energy investment and ensure energy security;Optimize the investment structure of electricity and promote clean and lowcarbon energy.
作者
相均泳
王健
田野
JUNYONG XIANG;JIAN WANG;YE TIAN(Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《产业经济评论》
2023年第6期184-200,共17页
Review of Industrial Economics
基金
全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技资助项目“双碳目标下我国经济社会和产业发展系统评估模型研究”(批准号:SGGEIG00JYJS2200032)的阶段性成果。
关键词
电力建设投资
投入产出分析
宫泽乘数
经济效应
power construction investment
Input output analysis
Miyazawa multiplier
Economic effect
