摘要
为了揭示京津冀地区奶牛养殖业氨排放演变的驱动因素,本研究首先采用排放因子法,对2008,2012,2016,2020年京津冀地区奶牛养殖业氨排放量进行估算;然后基于构建的奶牛养殖业的Kaya恒等式扩展模型,利用LMDI法揭示氨排放变化的驱动因素;最后通过情景分析法预测2025年京津冀地区奶牛养殖业的氨排放与减排潜力。结果表明:2008—2020年,京津冀地区奶牛养殖业氨排放总量呈逐渐降低的趋势,由2008年的5.18万t减少到2020年的3.38万t,年均递减率为3.50%;基于净效益的氨排放强度呈现先升高后降低的趋势,拐点为0.22 t/万元。养殖成本因素是研究期内促进京津冀地区奶牛养殖业氨排放升高的最主要因素,单位质量牛奶总收益和管理方式是降低氨排放的最主要因素。预计到2025年,随着养殖规模和养殖成本的增加,京津冀地区奶牛养殖业氨排放量将比2020年增加45.56%;仅加强饲舍环节和粪污储存环节的氨排放管理,其氨排放量仍比2020年增加28.99%;而通过饲舍、粪污储存、田间施用等全链条管理,其氨排放将比2020年降低50.89%。说明全链条管理是未来降低京津冀地区奶牛养殖业氨排放的根本措施。
To indicate the driving factors for ammonia(NH,)emissions of dairy industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,in this study,the emission factor method was used to estimate NH,emissions from dairy farming in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2008,2012,2016,and 2020.Based on the Kaya identity extended model for dairy farming,the driving factors of NH,emission change were revealed by LMDI method.Finally,the NH,emission and emission reduction potential of dairy farming in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2025 were predicted by scenario analysis.The results showed that from 2008 to 2020,the total NH,emissions from dairy farming in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a gradually decreasing trend,from 51800 t in 2008 to 33800 t in 2020,with an average annual decline rate of 3.50%.The NH,emission intensity based on net benefit showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,with an inflection point of 0.22 V10000 yuan..The breeding cost factor was the most important factor contributing to the increase of NH,emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the study period,while the benefit per kg of milk and the manure management were the most important factors in the reduction of NH emissions.The prediction showed that by 2025,with the increase in dairy catle population and breeding cost,the NH emissions from regional dairy industry might increase by 45.56%compared with 2020.Only by strengthening the management of NH,emissions in the feedhouse and manure storage links,the NH,emissions still increased by 28.99%compared with 2020.Through the whole chain management such as feedhouse,manure storage and field application,its NHg emissions would be reduced by 50.89%compared with 2020.It indicated that the whole chain management was the fundamental measure to reduce the NH,emission of dairy farming in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future.
作者
伊章华
徐一硕
张新星
高志岭
徐畅
景悦杨
YI Zhanghua;XU Yishuo;ZHANG Xinxing;GAO Zhilingg;XU Chang;JING Yueyang(College of Resource and Environmental Sciences,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China;Key Laboratory for Farmland Eco Environment of Hebei Province,Baoding 071000,China)
出处
《黑龙江畜牧兽医》
北大核心
2023年第18期9-16,共8页
Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine
基金
河北省重点研发计划项目(21327303D
20327306D)。
关键词
奶牛
氨排放
因素分解
情景分析
京津冀
dairy cows
NH,emissions
factor decomposition
scenario analysis
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
