摘要
随着各大流域梯级水库群的建成投运,梯级水库群短期优化调度问题的研究也越来越受到人们的关注,但该优化问题包含的变量多、约束复杂,其模型建模与求解难度随着水库群规模的扩大也越来越大。虽然传统优化方法或智能优化方法能够得到满足相关目标与约束的最优解,但往往优化算法下的结果太过于偏重目标值的大小,结果波动性、随机性大,难以满足实际调度需求。鉴于此,从历史已发生的调度结果出发,基于历史的详细调度数据,采用聚类分析等数据挖掘方法,考虑调度时期、业务类型、调度期长度、调度对象等场景要素,提出了电站出力场景构建技术,通过挖掘基于长系列历史运行数据的典型出力场景,形成出力场景库,并在此基础上提出了基于出力场景库的梯级水库群短期优化调度方法。以沙溪梯级水库群为例进行实例分析,结果表明,相比于传统优化调度方法,所提方法不仅能够得到满足实际调度要求的出力过程,而且计算时间也相对大大缩短,验证了该方法的可行性与实用性,研究成果对其他流域梯级水库群短期优化调度具有很好的参考借鉴意义。
With the construction and operation of cascade reservoirs in large basins,the research on short-term optimal operation of cascade reservoirs has received more and more attention.However,the optimization problem contains many variables and complex constraints,and its model modeling and solution are more and more difficult with the expansion of the reservoir group.Although traditional optimization methods or intelligent optimization methods can obtain optimal solutions that meet relevant objectives and constraints,the results under the optimization algorithm are often too biased towards the target value,resulting in large volatility and randomness,which is difficult to meet the actual scheduling needs.In view of this,this paper proposes the construction technology of power station output scenario based on the historical dispatching results,cluster analysis and other data mining methods,considering the scheduling period,business type,scheduling period length,scheduling objects and other scenario elements,and forms the output scenario set by mining typical output scenarios based on a long series of historical operation data.On this basis,a short-term optimal operation method of cascade reservoirs based on the output scenario set is proposed.Through the case study of Shaxi cascade reservoirs,it is found that compared with the traditional optimal operation method,the scenario method proposed in this paper can not only obtain the output process that meets the actual operation requirements,but also shorten the calculation time relatively,which verifies the feasibility and practicality of this method.The research results have a good reference significance for short-term optimization scheduling of cascade reservoirs in other basins.
作者
金传鑫
李红刚
艾显仁
陈超
刘杨洋
JIN Chuan-xin;LI Hong-gang;AI Xian-ren;CHEN Chao;LIU Yang-yang(Nari Group Corporation/State Grid Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu Province,China;Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower INC.,Kunming 650000,Yunnan Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2023年第10期223-229,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
城市供水系统原水调度模型研究及应用(5246C5210002)
深圳市智慧水务一期工程项目(2019-440304-65-01-104004)
澜沧江上游梯级电站(乌弄龙,里底电站)泄洪闸门智能决策系统研究(FD-SDKJ-201199)。
关键词
出力场景
场景构建
短期优化调度
调峰
沙溪梯级水库群
output scenario
scenario construction
short-term optimal scheduling
peak shaving
Shaxi Cascade Reservoirs
