摘要
冲突是国际关系的永恒主题,调停是冲突解决的重要方式,调停者和冲突方的关系是调停效果的关键因素。与冲突方之间关系的相对中立性或偏袒性是调停者的重要特征,关于有偏袒性的第三方是否更利于冲突解决、该第三方如何发挥作用等问题,目前学界尚存争论。本研究认为,对偏袒性第三方调停效果的探究不能独立于调停的发生过程。调停发生是调停产生效果的先决条件,推动或阻碍偏袒性调停发生的因素对调停效果也会产生影响,这一影响路径被学界称为“选择性偏差”。一方面,偏袒性第三方调停的发生受到冲突方与第三方选择的影响,只有当冲突方和第三方就是否进行调停达成一致时,调停才能发挥实际作用;另一方面,第三方偏袒性作为影响各方选择是否进行调停的因素,也将影响调停的效果。本研究将对已有研究进行分类,随后结合第三方特征分析调停发生的作用机制,总结选择效应对偏袒性调停效果的影响机理。这将有助于推进偏袒性调停效果的相关研究,启发人们思考偏袒性第三方在冲突管理中发挥作用的理论机制。
Conflict is the eternal theme of international relations,and mediation is an important way to solve conflicts.The relationship between mediators and conflicting parties will have an impact on the mediation effect.Neutrality or partiality is an important feature of mediators.Whether the biased third party is more conducive to conflict resolution and the specific mechanism for the third party to play its role are still controversial in academic circles.This study holds that the exploration of the effect of biased third-party mediation cannot be independent of the process of mediation.The occurrence of mediation is a prerequisite for the mediation effect,and the factors that promote or hinder the occurrence of biased mediation will also have an impact on the study of mediation effect.This influence path is called“selection bias”in academic circles.This study classifies the existing studies,analyzes the mechanism of mediation from the characteristics of conflict,the conflicting parties and the third party three aspects,and summarizes the influence of selection effect on the effect of biased mediation.This article is helpful to promote the research on the effect of biased mediation and inspire people to think about the theoretical mechanism of the role of biased third parties in conflict management.
作者
刘哲希
漆海霞
Liu Zhexi;Qi Haixia
出处
《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》
CSSCI
2023年第4期46-68,163,共24页
Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“新时代下国际领导力研究”(21&ZD167)的部分成果
国家社科基金后期资助项目“国际关系研究中的模型:博弈与统计”(19FZZB002)资助。
关键词
冲突管理
调停效果
偏袒性第三方
选择效应
俄乌冲突
Conflict Management
Mediation Effect
Biased Third-Party
Selection Effect
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
