摘要
研究农业虚拟水跨域流动格局,可以揭示贸易与区域水资源短缺问题之间更深层次的关系,对保障粮食安全,优化水资源配置,促进区域高质量发展有重要意义。作为我国最大的城市群,长三角地区内部资源要素流动频繁,且与国内其他地区间农产品贸易往来密切;但同时也面临着水资源短缺等风险。以长三角地区为例,构建水资源拓展的投入产出模型对农业虚拟水流动量进行计算,并结合虚拟水平衡状态和水资源压力状态探究国内城市群农产品贸易所驱动的虚拟水流动关系的影响。结果发现:从区域水资源状态来看,长三角地区水资源压力状态整体偏高,用水矛盾突出;虚拟水平衡状态表现为高度依赖区域外农业虚拟水流入。从时间维度看,自经济新常态以来,长三角地区始终表现为农业虚拟水净输入状态,虚拟水资源输入量总体呈现上升趋势,而虚拟水的自给率呈现先下降后上升的趋势;农业供给侧结构性改革前后,长三角内部农业虚拟水流动结构出现变动,江苏省替代安徽省成为上海市最重要的虚拟水来源。从空间维度看,长三角内部虚拟水流动呈现“安徽-江苏-浙江-上海”的链状结构;长三角和全国其他地区间呈现出“北方单向流入,南方双向互动”的虚拟水流动特征。最后,基于虚拟水战略实施视角,从引导区域内资源要素有序流动、健全生态产品价值实现机制、完善区域间贸易结构等视角提出相关政策建议,以期为调整优化区域农产品生产及贸易格局,促进人水和谐的城市群建设提供参考。
Research on the cross-domain flow pattern of agricultural virtual water can reveal the deeper relationship between trade and region⁃al water shortage,which is of great significance for ensuring food security,optimizing water resources allocation,and promoting high-quality regional development.As the largest urban agglomerations in China,the Yangtze River Delta has frequent internal resource flows and close agricultural trade with other domestic regions.But it also faces risks such as water shortage.Taking the Yangtze River Delta as an example,this paper constructs the input-output model of water resources expansion to calculate the agricultural virtual water flow momentum,and combined with the virtual water balance state and water resources pressure state,the influence of the virtual water flow relationship driven by agricultural products trade in domestic urban agglomeration is explored.The results show that:from the state of regional water resources,the pressure state of water resources in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively high,and the water use contradiction is prominent.The state of virtu⁃al water balance is highly dependent on the inflow of virtual water from outside the region.From the perspective of time,since the new normal of economy,the Yangtze River Delta has always shown a state of net agricultural virtual water input,with the input of virtual water resources on the whole showing an upward trend,while the self-sufficiency rate of virtual water shows a downward trend and then an upward trend.Be⁃fore and after the structural reform of agricultural supply side,the flow structure of agricultural virtual water in the Yangtze River Delta has changed,and Jiangsu Province has replaced Anhui Province as the most important source of virtual water in Shanghai.From the spatial di⁃mension,the virtual water flow in the Yangtze River Delta presents a chain structure of“Anhui-Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai”.The Yangtze River Delta and the rest of the country show a virtual water flow feature of“one-way f
作者
沈晓梅
孔千慧
于欣鑫
戴梦圆
SHEN Xiao-mei;KONG Qian-hui;YU Xin-xin;DAI Meng-yuan(Yancheng Institute of Green and Low-carbon Development,Yancheng Institute of Technology,Yancheng 224051,Jiangsu Province,China;School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,Jiangsu Province,China;School of Humanities and Social Sciences and Law,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,Heilongjiang Province,China;School of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2023年第9期17-25,34,共10页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(22EYA001)
盐城工学院学习贯彻党的二十大精神专项课题(2022-24)
盐城绿色低碳发展研究院开放课题重点项目(2022ZD03)
盐城市社科基金项目(23kA99)。
关键词
虚拟水流动
多区域投入产出法
水资源配置
长三角地区
virtual water flow
multi-regional input-output method
water resources allocation
Yangtze River Delta
