摘要
准确量化活性氮损失是农业生产消费系统氮管理的重要基础。以长江三角洲地区(长三角地区)为研究区,基于物质流分析法研究农业生产消费系统的氮损失特征,采用误差传播方程量化氮损失的不确定性,并采用多元回归分析对其传播机制进行分析。结果表明,2011—2020年,长三角地区农业生产消费系统活性氮损失总量由2011年的(1841.0±150.4)Gg/a上升至2013年的(1874.1±154.2)Gg/a,随后逐年下降至2020年的(1636.4±144.6)Gg/a。作物种植和畜禽养殖子系统是活性氮损失最大的两个源,10年平均占比分别为37.5%和31.0%。10年间,二者的活性氮损失占比均呈下降趋势,而居民消费和废物管理子系统活性氮损失占比均呈上升趋势。大气环境是系统活性氮损失最主要的汇,10年平均占比为52.2%。不确定性方面,系统活性氮损失总量的不确定性为8.1%—8.8%,其中,废物管理子系统和地表水环境活性氮损失分别为不确定性最高的源和汇。由人类活动水平数据和氮流参数引入的系统氮损失的不确定性分别为1.2%—1.3%和8.0%—8.8%,表明后者是氮损失不确定性的主要来源。畜禽养殖子系统和地表水环境损失对系统氮损失总量不确定性的贡献最大,分别为27.4%和50.0%。多元回归分析结果显示,各组分氮损失通量及其不确定性两个因素均显著影响氮损失总量的不确定性,且各组分氮损失通量是影响不确定性传播的主导因素。研究结果可为降低农业生产消费系统氮损失的不确定性提供参考。
Accurate quantification of nitrogen(N)loss is essential for N management in agricultural production and consumption system.Taking the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region as the study area,N loss characteristics of agricultural production and consumption system was estimated based on substance flow analysis,and sources of uncertainty were quantitatively analyzed using error propagation equation,and multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the transmission of uncertainty.The results showed that from 2011 to 2020,the total amount of N loss in the agricultural production and consumption system in the YRD initially increased from(1841.0±150.4)Gg/a in 2011 to(1874.1±154.2)Gg/a in 2013,and then decreased year by year to(1636.4±144.6)Gg/a in 2020.The cropland and livestock subsystems were the two largest sources of N loss,accounting for 37.5%and 31.0%on average,respectively.Moreover,the proportion of N loss of them both showed a decreasing trend,while that of human consumption and waste management subsystem showed an increasing trend.It was mainly attributed to the decrease of agricultural production scale and urbanization process in the YRD.Atmospheric environment was the primary sink of N loss in the system,with an average proportion of 52.2%in the 10 years.Based on calculation,the uncertainty of total N loss in the system was 8.1%—8.8%,in which the waste management subsystem and surface water were the sources and sinks of N loss with the highest uncertainty,respectively.In terms of uncertainty sources,the uncertainties of N loss introduced by human activity level data and N flow parameters were 1.2%—1.3%and 8.0%—8.8%,respectively,indicating that the latter was the main source of uncertainty.In addition,N loss from livestock subsystem and to surface water environment contributed the most to the total N loss uncertainty of the system,responsible for 27.4%and 50.0%,respectively.Multiple regression analysis showed that the N loss flux of each component and its uncertainty both significantly affected the uncert
作者
张泽乾
刘鹏
刘浩
许浩
周婷婷
王淑
李娟花
孙丽慧
ZHANG Zeqian;LIU Peng;LIU Hao;XU Hao;ZHOU Tingting;WANG Shu;LI Juanhua;SUN Lihui(State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第16期6923-6936,共14页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2022YSKY⁃35)
国家环境保护河口与海岸带环境重点实验室开放基金项目(HKHA2022006)。
关键词
物质流分析
氮流
氮损失
误差传播方程
传播机制
substance flow analysis
nitrogen flow
nitrogen loss
error propagation equation
transmission mechanism
