摘要
挑选与中国农产品贸易额较大且具有代表性的10个国家,构建包含资源环境要素的虚拟水投入产出模型,计算农产品贸易隐含虚拟水的转移情况.进而以国际贸易理论为基础构建了以虚拟水净进口量为被解释变量的贸易引力模型,重点探究了包括自由贸易协定和关税在内的各因素对虚拟水转移的影响.结果表明,中国的农业用水效率虽然在逐年提高,但与农业发达国家相比仍有较大差距;中国通过农产品国际贸易实现了对大部分国家虚拟水的贸易逆差;土地资源、劳动力数量、农业生产效率等方面的比较优势以及是否签订自由贸易协定、关税水平等变量是农产品贸易虚拟水流动的显著影响因素.中国通过进一步发展和壮大农产品国际贸易可以有效缓解国内水资源压力,因此应当在提高自身农业比较优势的同时,加快发展对外贸易关系,并充分发挥自由贸易协定在农产品国际贸易中的关键作用.
With increasing water scarcity,alleviating domestic water stress through virtual water transfers in international agricultural products trade is a viable water-saving option strategic.Ten representative countries with a large agricultural trade volume with China were selected to construct a virtual water resource input-output model,and the transfer of implied virtual water in agricultural products trade was calculated.A trade gravity model based on international trade theory with net virtual water imports was also be constructed as the explanatory variable,focusing on the impact of FTA and tariffs.The results show that although the efficiency of agricultural water use in China was improving,there was still a large gap between China and developed agricultural countries.China achieved a virtual water trade deficit with most countries through international agricultural products trade.Variables such as comparative advantage in terms of land resources,labor force size and agricultural productivity as well as presence of FTA and tariff levels were significant influenced on virtual water flows in agricultural trade.Based on these findings,following policy recommendations was made:China's further development and expansion of international trade in agricultural products could effectively relieve pressure on domestic water resources,so we should accelerate the development of foreign trade relations while improving its comparative advantage in agriculture,and give full play to the key role of free trade agreements in international trade in agricultural products.
作者
曾贤刚
段存儒
王睿
ZENG Xian-gang;DUAN Cun-ru;WANG Rui(School of Environment and Natural Resource,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期983-992,共10页
China Environmental Science
基金
中央高校建设一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金(21XNL006)。
关键词
农产品贸易
虚拟水转移
投入产出法
贸易引力模型
agricultural products trade
virtual water transfer
input-output method
trade gravity model
