摘要
人口老龄化对现收现付制养老金系统的可持续性造成巨大冲击,大力发展第三支柱个人养老金是完善养老保险制度的重要途径。如何提高个人养老金参与率以缓解基本养老保险压力是重要的研究课题。本文根据个人养老金管理实践,采用连续时间随机模型,对个人养老金账户的投资积累过程进行建模,并加入主观折现因子刻画参与人对流动性限制和风险承担要求的补偿。令个人养老金账户期望积累值与个人投资积累值相等,建立了参与个人养老金计划的决策指标内涵收益率。研究结果表明:不同收入人群的内涵收益率存在较大差异;提高个人养老金账户的投资收益率以及降低主观折现因子可以提高内涵收益率;可以通过设置差异税率、提高投资收益率、以及提供流动性机会等机制设计吸引不同人群参与个人养老金计划。此外,存在保底收益率的产品在兜底的同时保留了获得上行收益的可能性,对收益分布存在非对称影响。此类产品增强了养老金的积累效果,有助于实现个人养老金的扩面。
The population aging has a huge impact on the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go pension system,and vigorously developing the third pillar of individual pension is an important way to improve the pension system.How to increase individual pension participation rate to alleviate the pressure of the basic pension insurance is an important issue.Based on individual pension management practices,this article adopts a continuous time stochastic model to model the accumulation process of individual pension account.At the same time,subjective discount factors are added to characterize participants′required compensation for liquidity restrictions and risk-takings.By equating the expected accumulated value of individual pension account with the accumulated value of individual investment,we establish the indicator of intrinsic return rate for deciding whether to participate in the individual pension plans.The results indicate that there are significant differences in the intrinsic return rate among different income groups.Improving the investment return of individual pension account and reducing subjective discount factors can increase the intrinsic return rate.Mechanisms such as setting differential tax rates,increasing investment returns,and providing liquidity opportunities can be designed to attract different groups of people to participate in individual pension plans.In addition,products with a guaranteed return rate retain the possibility of obtaining the return upside while guaranteeing the minimum return,which has an asymmetric impact on the distribution of returns.This type of product enhances the accumulation outcomes of individual pension and helps to expand the participation scope accordingly.
作者
莫一茗
何林
MO Yi-ming;HE Lin
出处
《保险研究》
北大核心
2023年第7期67-77,共11页
Insurance Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD028)“构建金融有效支持实体经济着力点的体制机制研究”支持。
